Topic: SSI Research

SSI Research has published a report on the estimated business results of 26 companies in the third quarter of this year. Twenty-four are forecast to post profit growth while two are forecast to see a fall in profits. Banking profits are believed to have grown strongly in the third quarter despite interest rate hikes putting pressure on the net interest margin (NIM). The leading banks in terms of profit were Vietcombank, BIDV, ACB, and VPBank.

Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover reached $31.3 billion in the first eight months of 2022, up 16.4 per cent year-on-year. However, according to SSI Research, the picture in the fourth quarter is not too bright, because the number of orders will be 25-50 per cent lower than in the second quarter, equivalent to a 15-20 per cent fall in revenue year-on-year. At the same time, the sales outlook is also bleak, as the USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to continue to decline in the second half of the year.

The positive long-term outlook for Vietnam’s stock market has begun to show signs of triggering cash flows from actively disbursing funds. According to SSI Research, in August, cash flows from funds were more active and more evenly disbursed, with net buying of VND260 billion ($11 million). The number of funds actively net buying increased, while the level of net withdrawal by some funds has fallen gradually.

After three consecutive months of net entry into Vietnam’s stock market, capital flows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and active funds reversed to net withdrawal in July. According to SSI Research, a positive long-term outlook for Vietnamese securities could trigger cash flows from actively disbursing funds. ETF capital flows can also still maintain their attractiveness.

Latest update on the banking industry outlook from SSI Research notes both pros and cons.

According to SSI Research, the profits of most retail businesses have now peaked. Inflation is having a rising effect on purchasing power, forcing consumers to cut spending on non-essential items from the second quarter. Profits of retailers will therefore be under greater pressure.

SSI Research has forecast that revenue growth at textile and garment manufacturing companies in Vietnam will fall over the second half of 2022 and into 2023, due to shortened order times. Yarn, fabric, logistics, and labor costs are also expected to remain high as oil prices increase and workforce competition impacts supply chains.

According to SSI Research, rentals at industrial parks are expected to continue to rise at 8-20 per cent in the immediate future. Businesses with land available for lease therefore have an advantage over new industrial parks approved for planning, which may take 2-3 years to come into operation.

According to SSI Research, Vietnam’s stock market has been impressive compared to others in Asia, with net capital inflows since the beginning of the year. A deep correction in the market made valuations more attractive for long-term investments, which triggered cash flows from foreign investors. The proportion of foreign investors has improved significantly in 2022, to 7 per cent from 5-6 per cent in 2021.