Tag: VN-Index

The fall of 276 points during September has resulted in a decline in the VN-Index of 500 points since the beginning of the year; one of the largest in the world. Not only domestic individual investors lost and withdrew funds, with many foreign funds also reporting record losses.

The ACBS securities company has prepared three scenarios for Vietnam’s stock market. In the base scenario, growth will be some 19 per cent by the end of 2022, thanks to banking, transportation, real estate, and utility stocks, and the VN-Index will be around 1,400 points. In the optimistic scenario, the VN-Index will hit 1,500-1,600 points, and in the pessimistic scenario it will be 1,200 points.

Many securities investors are concerned with the stock market being under a lot of external risk pressure, as it is now. However, analysts have pointed out many advantages in the country’s stock market, such as low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and a higher return on equity (ROE) in the VN-Index than in the region.

According to KBSV Securities, despite the ongoing decline, the VN-Index is still forecast to reach 1,330 points by the end of the year, with average EPS growth of 18.3 per cent forecast for companies listed on HSX.

Figures from VnDirect show that the VN-Index increased 6.3 per cent in August; higher than most countries in the region. It has, however, fallen by 14.4 per cent since the beginning of the year, but this has still surpassed the MSCI emerging market index.

According to Rong Viet Securities (VDSC), there is a lot of data supporting a belief that the average matching transaction value on the VN-Index could reach VND17-19 trillion ($725-810 million) a session, an improvement of at least 20 per cent compared to now. The VN-Index may fluctuate around 1,225 to 1,398 points.

Bad news globally and relating to Vietnam’s macro-economic conditions were fully reflected in the stock market in the first half 2022. The VN-Index saw a steep decline that resulted in many individual investors and even foreign funds incurring heavy losses. In July, however, the stock market began to recover, which led to foreign funds reporting profits. Though these profits are modest, a promising future now awaits.

The real estate stock price index had fallen 25 per cent since the beginning of the year as of mid-June, equaling the decline of the VN-Index. SSI Research therefore believes real estate stock prices have come down to an attractive level for long-term holding.

Mr. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, has said that Vietnam’s resilience and growth in GDP and incomes will boost the VN-Index significantly if and when the US Fed eases interest rates.

According to PetroVietnam Securities Inc. (PSI), Vietnam’s stock market is likely to continue to experience adjustments in line with global markets but will recover soon after. PSI offered three scenarios for the VN-Index, with it reaching 1,550 points before the end of the year in the most optimistic and only 1,080-1,150 points in the most pessimistic.

ACBS Securities has forecast that under the most optimistic scenario, the VN-Index moves into a range of 1,800-1,900 points by the end of 2022, up 44.5 per cent since May 31. Even in the most pessimistic scenario, with uncertainty clouding the global market, the stock market could still be around 1,450 points by the end of the year.

According to a report from the Vietcombank Securities Limited Company (VCBS), the VN-Index is forecast to continue to set new highs in the closing months of 2021, aiming for the threshold of 1,500 points. Trade will also be active in the group of highly speculative small-cap stocks, which are forecast to continue to attract cash flow.

Most long-term forecasts indicate that the VN-Index could reach 1,400-1,450 points by the end of the year, from around 1,365 points now. Investors, however, still need to anticipate the following four risks: a prolonged outbreak of Covid-19 leading to lower-than-expected GDP growth, cash flow leaving securities for production and business, rising inflation, and falling profit growth.