According to Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), with a growth rate of 7.85 per cent in the first three quarters of 2025, Vietnam's economic outlook for the year remains positive.
However, due to the high comparison base in the fourth quarter of 2024, the last quarter of 2025 is expected to face many challenges amid tariffs and trade tensions, it remarked.
Therefore, UOB maintains its growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 at 7.2 per cent and adjusts the full-year 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.7 per cent from the previous 7.5 per cent.
However, to achieve the official growth target of 8.3 - 8.5 per cent, UOB experts believe that Vietnam will need to achieve a very high growth rate, from 9.7 - 10.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The main drivers are strong export and industrial production, further bolstered by accelerated disbursement of foreign direct investment (FDI).
UOB experts attribute this impressive performance mainly to vibrant international trade activities and strong production output, despite tariffs from the US.
Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Head of Research and Executive Director, Global Economics and Markets Research, at UOB, stated that in the long term, Vietnam aims to increase GDP per capita from over $4,000 currently to $8,500 by 2030. "With an average growth rate of about 7 per cent per year, this goal is entirely feasible," he added. "However, developing synchronized and robust infrastructure is a key factor to effectively leverage opportunities and promptly respond to emerging challenges."
He also believes the outlook for the end of 2025 remains positive thanks to strong performance in the first three quarters, especially in the export sector.
"Although Vietnam's trade activities have so far shown stability despite U.S. tariffs, a potential scenario is that export orders may start to decline as U.S. businesses have completed early orders to avoid tariffs (phenomenon of ordering before the tariff deadline) and rising prices begin to affect US consumer purchasing power, especially in 2026," he recommended.
In addition, according to UOB's forecast, with strong economic growth results in the first nine months and no signs of slowing down, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) currently has very little room to ease monetary policy, while inflationary pressures remain
Mr. Kin noted that the foreign exchange market is also an important factor in SBV's policy considerations. UOB maintains a cautious view on the VND's outlook and adjusts the USD/VND exchange rate forecast.
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