Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 is forecasted to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025, supported by a strong first half when growth accelerated to 7.5 per cent, acccording to the World Bank (WB)'s latest Vietnam Economic Update report, released on September 8.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s exports and imports in 2025 are projected to grow by 13.4 per cent and 14.9 per cent, respectively; and slowing to 8.7 per cent and 10 per cent in 2026.

According to WB experts, following strong momentum in the first half of 2025, driven by front-loaded exports, the Vietnamese economy is expected to moderate over the remainder of the year as export growth normalizes.

As an export-oriented economy, Vietnam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and softening demand from major trading partners. Trade-policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence.

Over the medium term, Vietnam’s GDP growth is projected to ease to 6.1 per cent in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5 per cent in 2027, supported by a recovery in global trade and Vietnam’s continued appeal as a competitive manufacturing base.

According to Ms. Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank’s Division Director for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, thanks to favorable export performance, Vietnam’s economy in the first half of this year has recorded notable improvements in manufacturing and the labor market, thereby boosting economic activity and raising household incomes.

“However, global headwinds remain a significant challenge for export-oriented economies like Vietnam, particularly amid ongoing trade tensions and international policy uncertainties,” Ms. Sherman noted.

Therefore, to support growth and hedge against external uncertainty, WB's expert recommends a focus on scaling up public investment, mitigating financial-sector risks, and advancing structural reforms.

Ms. Sherman noted that Vietnam’s low public debt gives the country ample fiscal headroom-policymakers can use well-executed public investment to close infrastructure gaps and create jobs. “At the same time, accelerating structural reforms to strengthen backbone services, advance green growth, build human capital, and diversify trade will help mitigate global risks and sustain long-term growth,” she added.

Along with that, Mr. Sacha Dray, WB’s Economist in Vietnam also recommended that structural reforms are essential for the country to sustain long-term growth. 

In which, authorities should accelerate reforms to strengthen the regulatory framework in key services (information and communications technology, electricity, and transportation), advance the green transition, enhance human capital, and optimize the business environment.

Vietnam also needs to further diversify its trade, both in terms of export products and markets, while deepening regional integration and connectivity. This will help mitigate risks stemming from global trade fragmentation and strengthen the economy’s resilience.

“Especially, it is important to enable greater integration of domestic private enterprises into global value chains by increasing the use of local suppliers by FDI firms and encouraging technology adoption to boost productivity among domestic vendors,” Mr. Dray stressed.