Vietnam has wrapped up 2022 with solid results in socioeconomic development but analysts have warned that the difficulties will linger.

The country is expected to post GDP growth of 8-8.2 per cent for 2022 and keep inflation at under 4 per cent.

Its economy has shown signs of recovery post-pandemic. GDP is estimated at $432 billion in 2022, higher than the 2021 figure of $363.6 billion, while export turnover reached around $371.5 billion. Vietnam enjoyed a trade surplus of $11 billion in 2022.

Public investment increased for infrastructure and construction, helping promote economic development. Total public investment capital stood at VND445.9 trillion ($18.7 billion), a year-on-year rise of 19.9 per cent.

FDI disbursement totaled $19.9 billion, making Vietnam a bright spot in the dark global economic landscape.

But due to pressure from the global economy, 2023 is forecast to see many fluctuations and complex challenges that will negatively impact Vietnam’s economy. This was already seen at the end of 2022, with a shortage of orders coming from major markets such as the US, Europe, and Japan due to inflation and falling consumption demand.

In September, the World Bank forecast that the global economic crisis may last into 2023 and even longer. Global GDP will fall 0.5 per cent next year. In the worst-case scenario, developed economies will shrink and developing and emerging economies will record slower growth.

Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) Vo Tan Thanh said 2023 will see challenges from both external and internal factors.

At a dialogue on economic forecasts held by VCCI on December 27, analysts warned that Vietnam is facing three “headwinds”: tightened monetary policy, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a slowing down in China’s economy.

Apart from directions and policies from the government to create a favorable business environment, the business community also needs to work together to help Vietnam overcome the “headwinds”, he said.

However, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association Le Hoang Chau said China has now changed its Zero Covid policy to open up its economy and it therefore no longer presents a challenge for economic recovery in Vietnam and the world. This is good news for exporters and the real estate market.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), meanwhile, forecast that Vietnam will experience growth adjustments during 2023. The economic challenges will be dominated by recession and inflation in global markets.