According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam's seafood export value in October 2025 was estimated at $1.14 billion, bringing the total export value for the first ten months of 2025 to $9.31 billion, an increase of 12.9 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.
However, the sector is forecast to face more challenges from new countervailing duties of the U.S., as well as stricter regulations on traceability and marine mammal protection under its Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), and the EU’s ongoing "yellow card" against illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
Despite these challenges, VASEP believes there are opportunities in every difficulty, as the EU has shown signs of easing some technical barriers for Vietnam's aquaculture products, opening up strong growth potential for shrimp and pangasius.
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) expansion with the UK's accession helps diversify trade channels and create additional opportunities for high-value processed products. The Chinese market continues to maintain strong demand for fresh and premium products serving the hotel-restaurant-catering (HORECA) sector in the final months of the year.
VASEP forecasts that the fourth quarter of 2025 seafood exports will significantly slow down, reaching approximately $2.19 billion, a decrease of over 22 per cent compared to the same period last year, due to the impact of a 20 per cent countervailing duty and the risk of high anti-dumping duties on shrimp exports to the U.S..
The export situation in the first quarter of 2026 is forecasted to continue declining due to the chain reaction caused by taxes and MMPA. From the second quarter of 2026 onwards, the recovery rate will depend on Vietnam's ability to remove tariff barriers, the anti-IUU yellow card, as well as efforts to diversify markets and increase the proportion of high-value-added processed products.
Amidst the strong fluctuations in the global seafood market, experts believe that the 2025–2026 period will be a turning point for Vietnam's seafood industry.
Currently, the strategy of competing on low prices is no longer suitable in the context of high U.S. tariffs, while many countries require proof of sustainable sourcing, and markets prioritize high-quality, transparently traceable products.
VASEP recommends that businesses shift their focus to deep processing, developing high-value-added products, and leveraging opportunities from trade agreements such as the expanded CPTPP with the UK's participation.
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