Vietnam's economy is expected to continue its solid growth trajectory over the next two years,  according to the OECD Economic Outlook Report for 2025, released on June 3.

However, the pace may slow down due to global policy uncertainties and domestic factors, the report added.

Accordingly, Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to reach 6.2% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026.

The report stated that personal consumption is expected to continue growing well in 2025, driven by the positive effects of an increase in workers' real wages. Additionally, the government's plan to boost public investment will be an important factor in supporting domestic investment and stimulating economic growth.

Looking back at 2024, the OECD assessed that Vietnam's economy had a strong year, with an impressive GDP growth of 7.1%, following a moderate growth rate of 5.1% in 2023. Positive contributions from final consumption, total investment capital, and exports of goods and services were the main factors driving this stable expansion. Notably, the unemployment rate dropped to a historic low of 2.2% in March 2025, underemployment decreased, and labor force participation increased.

Exports of goods and services also saw a significant increase of 15.5% in 2024, after a slight decline in 2023. Particularly, exports to the US surged by 23.2%, accounting for 30% of Vietnam's total export revenue. This makes Vietnam more vulnerable to US import tariff increases.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to be a key growth driver for Vietnam, with capital inflows increasing since mid-2024.

Additionally, Vietnam maintained macroeconomic stability, with headline inflation decreasing from a recent peak of 4.4% in May 2024 to 3.1% in April 2025. Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 2.5% in September 2024 but later rebounded.

Despite positive signals, the OECD forecasts that Vietnam's economy will still face considerable challenges. Global policy instability is expected to cool foreign investment and export activities. FDI inflows are projected to weaken, and inflation is expected to rise.