The Middle East has emerged as a significant growth market for Vietnamese seafood. In 2025, seafood exports to this region reached $401 million, a 9.6% increase compared to 2024, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
However, escalating military tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran in recent days have rapidly transformed into a major "shock" for maritime transport and insurance in the Middle East—a region that plays a pivotal role in the global flow of energy and goods.
VASEP warns that for the seafood industry, the impact extends beyond skyrocketing shipping costs. There are also mounting risks of cold chain disruptions, localized supply shortages, and price volatility across various product segments. The primary risk is currently centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime gateway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean.
As security warnings intensify, several international shipping lines have adjusted their operations. Vessels have been instructed to find safe anchorages, while some routes through Hormuz have been suspended. Furthermore, many carriers are rerouting journeys around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Red Sea–Bab el-Mandeb–Suez Canal corridor.
In just a few days, freight rates on the Asia-Dubai route have nearly doubled. Emergency surcharges for routes to and from Gulf countries have been announced at levels between $1,500 and $4,000 per container, with refrigerated (reefer) containers facing even higher fees. For seafood enterprises, these direct costs are driving up product prices and narrowing profit margins.
Parallel to the transport crisis, the maritime insurance market is also reacting sharply. Several Protection and Indemnity (P&I) clubs and war risk insurers have issued notices to cancel or restrict coverage for vessels operating in Iran and the Persian Gulf region, with such notices becoming effective just 72 hours after issuance.
Seafood cold chain: vulnerable link
According to Deputy General Secretary of VASEP, Le Hang, seafood is a product category that requires strict temperature control and precise delivery timelines. The Middle East is a major consumer of salmon, shrimp, tuna, and various high-value products imported from Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
With restricted airspace and disrupted flight schedules, the supply of fresh seafood—which relies heavily on air freight—is at risk of shortages within just a few days. Consequently, importers are forced to shift to frozen products. However, this channel also faces significant challenges as bookings for refrigerated (reefer) containers are being restricted or temporarily suspended.
"For Vietnamese enterprises, particularly exporters of pangasius and shrimp, extending the transit journey by an additional one to two weeks means higher electricity costs to maintain temperatures, increased container storage fees, and the heightened risk of quality-related disputes," Ms. Hang said.
Given that the Middle East offers relatively healthy profit margins for pangasius and certain value-added product lines, the sharp rise in logistics costs could fundamentally alter the profit structure of the entire supply chain.
In the short term, if tensions de-escalate and security conditions improve, shipping lines may gradually restore routes through the Strait of Hormuz, reopen reefer container bookings, and phase out war risk surcharges. Under this scenario, the seafood supply chain could recover relatively quickly, particularly for frozen goods.
Conversely, if risks persist, rerouting will become the "new normal." Insurance premiums would remain high, war risk surcharges would stay in place, and the capacity for reefer containers into the Gulf region would be limited. In this case, seafood import costs into the Middle East could remain elevated for months, causing price volatility to spill over into related global markets.
In the current context, VASEP advises Vietnamese seafood enterprises to diversify transportation routes and avoid relying entirely on a single maritime corridor; increase cold storage reserves in regional facilities, especially at major transshipment centers; and prioritize long‑term shipping contracts to reduce dependence on the spot market.
Enterprises should closely monitor developments in marine insurance and the policies of shipping companies in order to proactively negotiate.
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