Topic: VDSC

Viet Dragon Securities (VDSC) has said that in the context of central banks in other countries not dealing resolutely with high inflation, the USD may return to its peak established in early 2022. This means that pressure will inevitably be on the VND/USD exchange rate, and the VND could depreciate 4-5 per cent this year. Notably, lending interest rates will also increase sharply in the near future.

High inventories, inflation, and lower demand in the US will make it more difficult for Vietnam to export seafood to the country over the closing months of this year. The Viet Dragon Securities Company (VDSC) believes the downward trend may put pressure on stock prices in the short term, but a discounted share price could be an opportunity to hold for the long term.

Viet Dragon Securities Company believes the current situation in the banking industry provides a basis for further development.

According to Rong Viet Securities (VDSC), there is a lot of data supporting a belief that the average matching transaction value on the VN-Index could reach VND17-19 trillion ($725-810 million) a session, an improvement of at least 20 per cent compared to now. The VN-Index may fluctuate around 1,225 to 1,398 points.

Banks have been permitted to increase their charter capital and this has had a positive impact on the banking industry in general and banking stocks in particular.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has net withdrawn nearly VND200 trillion ($8.5 billion) through the open market treasury bill channel in recent times. It also withdraws money through foreign currency sales. Viet Dragon Securities (VDSC) estimates that, in a bid to prevent the devaluation of the VND, the central bank has sold about $13 billion since the beginning of the year.

The Viet Dragon Securities Company (VDSC) believes the USD/VND exchange rate is under considerable short-term pressure to increase but this pressure will ease by the end of the year. It forecasts a 2-2.5 per cent depreciation for the year as a whole.