According to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025, released on July 23, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecasts for economies in developing Asia and the Pacific this year and next year.

For Vietnam, ADB noted that its GDP growth has been revised down to 6.3 per cent in 2025 and 6.0 per cent in 2026 from the bank's April forecasts of 6.6 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Vietnam's inflation is forecast to decline to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 3.8 per cent in 2026.

For developing Asia and the Pacific as a whole, the bank forecasts the region’s economies will grow by 4.7 per cent in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point decline from its projection issued in April. The forecast for next year has also been lowered to 4.6 per cent from 4.7 per cent in ADB’s April forecasts

Inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific is projected to continue slowing, amid easing oil prices and strong farm output reducing food price pressures, according to ADB.  It forecasts regional inflation of 2.0 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year, lower than its April projections of 2.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

Economies in Southeast Asia will likely be hardest hit by worsened trade conditions and uncertainty, according to ADB. It predicts the subregion’s economies will grow 4.2 per cent this year and 4.3 per cent next year, down roughly half a percentage point from its April forecasts.

The strong export and import growth, along with a surge in foreign investment disbursement, drove Vietnam’s economic performance in the first half of 2025, according to the ADO July 2025. It reported that registered foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2025 rose by 32.6 per cent, while disbursement increased by 8.1 per cent year-on-year, indicating strong international confidence in the country’s economic prospects. Public investment disbursement reached its highest level since 2018, at 31.7 per cent of the annual plan and an increase of 19.8 per cent from the same period in the previous year.

According to ADB, front-loading of exports to cope with the tariff uncertainty drove trade performance in Vietnam recently, however, it is unlikely to sustain over the second half of the year.

According to Mr. Albert Park, ADB’s Chief Economist, Asia and the Pacific have weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty. “Economies in the region should continue strengthening their fundamentals and promoting open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth”, he noted.