Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5% from 6.9%, noting that despite tariff threats and uncertainty, Vietnam’s economy continues to show resilience and dynamism.

“Following the robust 7.5% growth in the first half of 2025 and expected support from increased government investment, we revise our full-year GDP forecast to 7.5%,” the bank said in its Global Economics & Markets Research unit, which has been freshly released. 

The third quarter growth is expected at 7.6% year-on-year and the fourth quarter at 7.2%, UOB forecast.

Export performance has been particularly strong, though risks remain if US demand weakens amid tariff-induced price pressures, according to the report.

The robust first-half showing was driven by a 14% year-on-year export surge, as sentiment rebounded after US President Donald Trump lowered the reciprocal tariffs to a temporary 10% baseline rate on trade partners for 90 days. Tariff uncertainty eased in the second quarter after the US finalized country-specific rates before the 1 Aug deadline with Vietnam’s rate is being set at 20%, the report remarked.

While tariff pressures remain, UOB expects Vietnam’s exports to grow about 10% in 2025, compared with 14% in 2024, assuming a moderate 1%–5% year-on-year expansion over the remainder of the year.

Other indicators further highlighted the economy’s resilience. Vietnam's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July after three consecutive months below the 50-point contraction threshold. Manufacturing output rose 9% year-on-year. Realized FDI inflows hit $13.6 billion as of July, up from $12.6 billion a year ago, suggesting full-year FDI could exceed $20 billion.

Amid external headwinds, Vietnam announced in mid-August a $48 billion infrastructure drive covering 250 projects. The Government will fund 129 projects, focused on urban development and transport with $18 billion, while the remaining 121 projects, worth $30.5 billion, will be financed by other sources, including foreign firms.

For 2026, the bank maintains Vietnam’s growth projection at 7%.