Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 to 9.2%, from 8.5% previously, according to its third-quarter economic outlook report.
Vietnam’s GDP grew 9.95% in the third quarter of 2026, bringing growth for the first nine months to 9.01%, UOB said. Industry and construction expanded 12.5%, while the services sector grew 9.54%, providing the main drivers of economic growth.
The investment outlook remains positive, reflecting supply chain diversification and the relocation of manufacturing operations to Vietnam. Registered foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 76.4% year-on-year to $50.36 billion in the first nine months of 2026, while disbursed FDI increased 12.1% to $21.07 billion, the highest level recorded for the same period in five years.
Public investment also gained momentum, with state budget-funded disbursements reaching 50.5% of the annual plan by the end of August, up 18.5% from a year earlier.
Despite persistent external demand uncertainties and price pressures, Vietnam’s trade balance moved into surplus. Exports surged 39.1% year-on-year in September, generating a trade surplus of $1.27 billion. However, average consumer price inflation stood at 4.52% in the first nine months, slightly exceeding the government’s 4.5% control target.
For 2027, UOB raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 8.8%, from 8.4%, citing the expected conversion of registered FDI into actual production capacity and reform efforts under Resolution No. 19-NQ/TW, dated July 28, 2026. The resolution focuses on accelerating growth, upgrading industry and developing higher-value-added manufacturing sectors.
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