Singapore-based UOB has maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth at 7% in 2026, citing the economy’s resilience despite mounting external pressures and global uncertainties.
According to UOB’s Global Economics and Markets Research Division in its third-quarter 2026 outlook report, Vietnam is expected to sustain solid growth momentum this year even as it faces challenges including geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices and rising inflationary pressures.
UOB noted that risks stemming from higher energy costs and potential changes in US trade and tariff policies remain significant. However, external demand has so far remained relatively robust, supported in part by a global wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
“Based on current conditions, we maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 7.0%. The most challenging period is likely to fall in the second and third quarters, when growth is expected to average around 6.7%,” the bank said.
The report highlighted a mixed near-term outlook. Vietnam’s manufacturing sector showed improvement in May, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 52.8 points. However, inflation accelerated to 5.6%, its highest level in six years.
Industrial production growth slowed to 9% in May, bringing the average increase for the second quarter to 9.5%, below the 11% recorded in the first quarter. Meanwhile, export growth moderated while imports rose sharply, resulting in a trade deficit of $12.7 billion during the first five months of the year, the largest in nearly three decades.
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