Based on a survey by the General Statistics Office (GSO), VnDirect has predicted that Vietnam’s GDP growth will be positive in the third quarter.

The GSO’s survey of business prospects showed that up to 85 per cent of respondent enterprises believe their business prospects in the third quarter of 2022 will be equal to or better than in the second quarter, while only 15 per cent believe the situation will be more difficult.

Based on this outlook, VnDirect has forecast that Vietnam’s GDP growth may be around 11 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, as growth in the third quarter of last year was -6.02 per cent. In addition to corporate confidence in the country’s business prospects, high growth is due to a low base in the third quarter of 2021, when Vietnam’s GDP shrank 6.0 per cent due to the impact of social distancing.

The service industry will be the main growth engine of the economy thanks to the continued strong development of domestic tourism. Domestic demand has also recovered thanks to higher incomes and a 2 per cent reduction in VAT, which will last until the end of the year.

For 2022 as a whole, VnDirect maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.1 per cent. Overall, Vietnam will remain one of the fastest-growing countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the year. Entering 2023, its GDP growth is forecast to slow a touch, to 6.9 per cent.