Topic: vndirect

The number of international visitors arriving in Vietnam by air reached 4.9 million in the third quarter of the year, a 35-fold increase over the same period last year when most of Vietnam was in lockdown, and equal to 49.8 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. VnDirect has forecast that visitor numbers will reach 12.5 million in 2022, equal to 88.5 per cent of the pre-pandemic number. The recent market decline has resulted in the price of many stocks falling, with attractive valuations and strong growth expectations meaning now is a good time to accumulate aviation stocks.

A report from the VNDirect Securities Company shows that tight liquidity has been a concern for the banking system in recent times, but the risk to system liquidity is not significant. The efforts of authorities to combat “dollarization” in the economy and increase cashless transactions have brought significant results, while the macroeconomic situation remains stable and the health of the banking system has improved.

In receiving the “Top 10 Excellent Brands in the Financial Services Industry” award for 2022 from VnEconomy / Vietnam Economic Times on October 12, VnDirect continues to affirm its leading position in the country’s financial sector. It has been shifting from providing securities trading services to becoming a multi-channel asset investment service ecosystem, helping customers invest safely and effectively.

According to VnDirect Securities, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has decisively and promptly responded to changes in the international financial market. However, an increase of 100 basis points in the operating interest rate was unexpected, and higher than the forecasted 50 basis points. VnDirect believes the rate may increase by an additional 30-50 points during the closing months of the year. The 12-month deposit interest rate at commercial banks will rise to 6.1-6.3 per cent per annum by end-2022, which is still lower than the pre-pandemic 7.0 per cent per annum.

VnDirect has recommended that the short-term outlook for banking stocks calls for caution, due to concerns over rising capital costs and limited credit growth. However, in the longer term, some banks will enjoy strong profit growth over the 2022-2023 period, supported by solid asset quality, improving fee income, and reduced credit expense ratios.

In its updated macro outlook, VnDirect forecasts many positive scenarios for Vietnam’s economy. GDP growth will reach 7.7 per cent this year and inflation 3.2 per cent, while exports will increase 15 per cent. FDI, meanwhile, will fall 5-10 per cent in registered capital but increase 10 per cent in disbursed capital, with registered capital to recover from 2023.

Figures from VnDirect show that the VN-Index increased 6.3 per cent in August; higher than most countries in the region. It has, however, fallen by 14.4 per cent since the beginning of the year, but this has still surpassed the MSCI emerging market index.

VnDirect has forecast that Vietnam’s stock market may face a short-term correction in September, with the VN-Index approaching a strong resistance area of 1,300-1,330 points. As market fundamentals are improving, this correction will create a “good disbursement opportunity” for investors. Current market valuations are quite attractive to long-term investors.

Profit growth slowed on average in the second quarter of 2022, according to VnDirect. The net profit of companies on HoSE, HNX, or UPCoM was not as high as in the first quarter.

According to VnDirect, profits of large-cap and small-cap stocks increased 25 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively, in the second quarter of this year. Profits in the financial services group fell 100.7 per cent, primarily due to the stock market tumbling over the past few months, a sharp fall in brokerage and proprietary trading, and margin lending factors.