The total export value of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries products in the first half of 2025 has been estimated at $33.5 billion, a 14.3 per cent increase compared to the same period last year. Of this, agriculture exports are expected to reach $18.3 billion, up 16.8 per cent. Nine of eleven major export categories maintained their growth momentum, including coffee, rubber, pepper, cashew nuts, livestock, seafood, and wooden products. Rice and fruit and vegetables, however, posted sharp declines, with rice exports falling 9.8 per cent to $2.6 billion and fruit and vegetables 17.1 per cent to $2.7 billion.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) set a clear goal as a result: to stop the downwards trend in these key categories while maintaining strong growth in coffee, pepper, and cashew nut exports.

Strategic shifts for agri-exports

For the second half of 2025, the MAE warned that reciprocal tariff policies in the US and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East will drive up global logistics costs and make it extremely difficult to sustain the current export growth of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries products. To meet the annual export target of $65 billion, the Ministry has revised its export goal for the second half of the year to $31.6 billion, down 4.8 per cent against the same period of 2024. Decisive action is needed to sustain exports in traditional markets over the course of the second half while diversifying product lines and tapping into high-potential sectors to increase export value.

The 2025 rice export target is set at $5.7 billion. As of June, however, export value had only reached some $2.6 billion. Facing this challenge, the MAE emphasized the need to maintain market share in traditional destinations such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, while expanding into promising markets like the EU, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, particularly with processed rice-based products like vermicelli, noodles, and pho. Reducing logistics costs and diversifying raw material sources will also be key to boosting the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice in new markets such as Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and the UAE.

Similarly, exports of fruit and vegetables are targeted at $7.6 billion in total for 2025, a 6.8 per cent increase compared to 2024. Based on mid-year performance, however, full-year exports are now forecast to reach just $6.6 billion due to sharp declines in key fruit such as durian, dragon fruit, banana, and jackfruit, especially to the Chinese market. In the US, while Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports account for only 1.9 per cent of the total share, there remains significant room for growth as consumers increasingly prioritize healthy food choices. Vietnam holds a competitive edge in fresh fruit like coconut, mango, pomelo, and passionfruit. Moreover, exports of processed mango and coconut products, both showing strong growth, can be further expanded. At the same time, businesses must renegotiate supply chains, share additional costs stemming from tariffs, and consider redirecting some product lines to alternative markets if US exports become more challenging.

China, Vietnam’s largest fruit and vegetable importer, still offers growth potential thanks to import tariff reductions on fresh fruit under the ASEAN - China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) framework. In particular, fresh coconut is seen as a high-growth item. The sector should focus on removing export barriers for durian, improving compliance with quarantine and food safety regulations, and closely monitoring customs clearance information to proactively address issues during peak harvest seasons.

Elsewhere, ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and the EU continue to be identified as high-potential markets, especially for Vietnam’s export-strong fresh fruit. Standardizing product quality, improving packaging facilities, and complying with import regulations are critical to safeguarding and expanding Vietnam’s market share in these regions.

Wood and seafood exports under pressure

Vietnam’s wood industry is targeting export earnings of $18.5 billion this year, a 7 per cent increase compared to 2024. However, mounting pressure from US tariff policies, especially as the US accounts for 67 per cent of the industry’s total export turnover, along with American buyers seeking alternative suppliers, is becoming a major challenge for the sector’s global competitiveness.

To navigate these headwinds, the industry must leverage its strengths in design variety, cost-effectiveness, large-scale production capacity, and flexibility in OEM / ODM manufacturing, while ensuring full compliance with legal timber standards. Maintaining the right product lines and increasing imports of roundwood and sawn timber from the US will not only help reduce trade imbalances but also ensure legal origin, minimizing the risk of origin-related trade disputes. At the same time, exports to China should be strengthened, particularly for products such as wood chips, veneer, and construction wood products. Expanding market share in Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada, and the Middle East also remains a key priority.

The fisheries industry has set a 2025 export target of $10.5 billion, up 4.3 per cent from 2024. But, like wood, the industry is also being impacted by US tariff policies. The country currently accounts for 12.8 per cent of Vietnam’s fisheries export value, but consumer demand, particularly for shrimp and salmon, is showing signs of decline. To maintain its market position, Vietnam must ramp up exports of pangasius (catfish) and enhance monitoring and traceability systems to meet the requirements under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA).

Bright spots in the export landscape

Amid the current challenges, the MAE has highlighted that several key commodities, such as coffee, pepper, and cashew nuts, still have the potential to maintain and accelerate export growth.

With the main harvest season falling between December and April, Vietnam’s coffee sector recorded estimated export earnings of $5.5 billion in the first half of 2025, already reaching the full-year target. Full-year exports are now projected to hit $7.5 billion, up 36.9 per cent from 2024. Vietnamese coffee is primarily exported to the EU. In addition to strengthening its footprint in the bloc, Vietnam is looking to expand into Northeast Asia.

The pepper industry is targeting exports of $1.35 billion this year, up 2.5 per cent against 2024. In the first half, though export volumes fell 12 per cent, the average export price rose nearly 60 per cent, driving total export value up 40.5 per cent to over $800 million. However, rising US tariffs could undermine Vietnam’s competitiveness against Brazil and Indonesia. Even so, the strong performance in the first half of the year is expected to ensure full-year growth. To sustain this momentum, the sector needs to broaden its reach in the EU, the Middle East, and Asia.

The cashew industry, meanwhile, aims to reach $4.5 billion in exports in 2025, a 2.7 per cent increase over the previous year. According to the MAE, the EU presents strong potential for Vietnamese cashews, thanks to increasing demand for processed nut products, though the market also comes with strict requirements on sustainable production and deforestation-free supply chains. Investing in deep processing and traceability and building a national brand will be key to increasing the value of Vietnam’s cashew exports into the future.