The US has recently imposed reciprocal tariffs of up to 50 per cent on Brazilian goods, prompting many American importers of whitefish to pivot towards Vietnam’s pangasius (catfish) as a viable substitute for Brazilian tilapia. The shift signals a golden opportunity for Vietnam to expand its footprint in what is a competitive global seafood market.

Despite facing higher tariffs in the US and ongoing general volatility in global trade, Vietnam’s pangasius exports are exhibiting strong signs of recovery. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), citing data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs at the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam exported $194 million worth of pangasius in June, a 13 per cent increase year-on-year. Total export value for the first half of 2025 stood at $1.023 billion, up 11 per cent against the same period of 2024.

Notably, pangasius products under HS code 03, which include fresh, chilled, and frozen fish, accounted for 98 per cent of total export value, bringing in $997 million, an 11 per cent rise year-on-year. Frozen pangasius fillets (HS0304) remained the star performer, contributing $821 million, also up 11 per cent, and making up more than 80 per cent of the HS03 group’s export value.

As global supply chains realign and US buyers seek alternatives, Vietnam’s pangasius industry is seizing the momentum, positioning itself as a reliable and competitive source in the global whitefish market.

Mixed signals in key markets

China and Hong Kong (China) continue to affirm their status as Vietnam’s largest pangasius export markets. Both, however, experienced a downturn in the first half of 2025. In June alone, exports to China and Hong Kong (China) reached $53 million, down 4 per cent compared to June 2024. First-half exports hit $249 million, also reflecting a 4 per cent decline year-on-year.

Meanwhile, the US market witnessed a strong rebound in demand for Vietnamese pangasius. Exports to the US in June 2025 totaled $34 million, up 23 per cent from the same period last year. For the first half of the year, the total reached $175 million, marking a 10 per cent increase year-on-year. Notably, value-added pangasius products under HS code 16 (deep-processed items) contributed $26 million, surging 48 per cent thanks to US buyers front-loading orders before new reciprocal tariffs took effect.

However, VASEP noted that this growth was largely driven by FOB/CIF contracts signed earlier in 2025, prior to the US Government’s announcement of potential reciprocal tariffs on certain seafood imports. In response to this uncertainty, many Vietnamese exporters have strategically shifted towards higher-quality, deep-processed products to enhance export value and mitigate any risk from additional tariffs.

Brazil has emerged as a high-potential market for Vietnamese pangasius. Exports to the country stood at $16 million in June, up a staggering 111 per cent year-on-year. For the first half of the year, total exports to the country hit $175 million, up 10 per cent compared to the same period of 2024.

On July 5, during a Vietnam Business Forum held in the Brazilian capital Brasilia, the Nam Viet Corporation (NAVICO) and Brazilian company AV09 Comercio Exporter Ltda signed a strategic cooperation agreement in the seafood sector. NAVICO was previously involved in Vietnam’s first official export shipment of pangasius, basa, and tilapia to Brazil, which was a historic milestone in bilateral agri-trade relations. Both countries are now pushing to accelerate negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) between Vietnam and the Mercosur bloc in South America, while also finalizing legal frameworks on investment, facilitating visa access, and expanding flight connectivity to strengthen business and economic ties.

In the EU, Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached $13 million in June, down 15 per cent year-on-year. However, total export value for the first half of the year still posted a modest increase, of 5 per cent, reaching $90 million. The Netherlands remains the largest importer of Vietnamese pangasius within the bloc, with $26 million in the first half of 2025, an 11 per cent rise from the same period last year. Market demand is showing signs of slow but steady recovery, particularly for sustainably certified products with clear traceability.

According to VASEP, with the sector’s positive momentum from early 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius industry is on track to potentially reclaim the $2 billion export milestone by year-end. However, the Association also warned of persistent challenges, including stricter technical barriers, rising trade protectionism, and ongoing fluctuations in global logistics costs.

Sourcing shift to Vietnam

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the early morning of August 1 (Vietnam time), the White House published an Executive Order issued by US President Donald Trump regarding the adjustment of reciprocal tariff rates. Under this order, the US has decided to revise the reciprocal tariffs applied to 69 countries and territories listed in Annex I. According to the Annex, the reciprocal tariff rate for Vietnam has been reduced from the initially-proposed 46 per cent to 20 per cent.

Facing this impending threat, several Vietnamese pangasius exporters have proactively shifted to high-quality, value-added products to enhance export value while minimizing the risk of price surges post-tariff.

On July 30, meanwhile, President Trump signed an Executive Order imposing an additional 40 per cent tariff on Brazil, raising the total tariff to 50 per cent. Earlier the month, in a letter sent to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President Trump warned of the 50 per cent tariff, set to take effect on August 1, and may be expanded to cover major export categories, including seafood.

According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Hang, a pangasius market analyst at VASEP, data from the International Trade Center (ITC) shows that Brazil was the fifth-largest supplier of whitefish to the US in 2024, behind China, Vietnam, Iceland, and Colombia, with a total value of nearly $59 million, mostly from tilapia products (fresh, chilled, or frozen fillets under HS codes 030431, 030323, 030461). In just the first five months of 2025, Brazil exported over $32 million worth of tilapia to the US, a 62 per cent increase year-on-year.

“With the proposed 50 per cent tariff taking effect on August 1, 2025, if applied to whitefish, the average import price of Brazilian tilapia could rise from the current $2.7-2.9 per kilo to over $4, which is high enough to force US importers to reconsider their entire sourcing strategy,” Ms. Hang commented. She added that although the US has not yet specified which product groups will be taxed, whitefish, being a major component of Brazil’s seafood exports to the US, is likely to be affected. In the short term, US buyers may delay shipments, revise volumes, or seek alternative sources if Brazil fails to adjust pricing or renegotiate contract terms in time.

The tightening of US trade policy, occurring amid a broader slowdown in globalization, is placing mounting pressure on Vietnamese exporters in terms of input costs, pricing negotiations, and delivery timelines. However, thanks to Vietnam’s growing capabilities in value-added processing and the ongoing shift from raw to processed exports, the country is well-positioned to pivot and adapt more quickly to trade disruptions.

“In the event Brazil loses its cost advantage due to the new tariffs, many US importers are reportedly exploring alternative suppliers with stable supply chains, reliable quality, and agile production capacity, making Vietnam a leading candidate,” Ms. Hang believes.

Clearly, the new US tariff strategy is reshaping the global whitefish market. If Brazil falters under steep tariffs, neither Colombia nor Iceland, with their smaller production volumes, are expected to be able to fill the supply gap. In contrast, Vietnam is seen as capable of capturing part of the redirected demand, especially in the deep-processed pangasius segment, even though Brazil’s overall whitefish export value to the US remains modest compared to Vietnam.

To adapt to the new US tariff structure and make the most of emerging opportunities, VASEP has recommended that pangasius processors and exporters carefully assess their profit margins, logistics costs, and contract conditions. The new tariffs will have a direct impact on the ability of exporters to secure and sustain long-term orders.