The State Bank of Vietnam's Department of Forecasting, Statistics, and Monetary-Financial Stability has recently released key findings from a comprehensive survey on the credit trends across the banking system.
Contrary to the slight decline observed in the first half of the year, credit institutions have noted a slight increase in credit risk levels during the latter half of 2025. However, this increase is significantly lower compared to the period from 2023 to 2024.
Notably, the highest credit risk continues to be concentrated in loans for real estate investment and business.
The slight upward trend in credit risk is expected to persist into 2026, with real estate investment and business remaining the sector with the highest perceived risk, followed by securities and import-export activities.
According to credit institutions, the overall credit demand of customers in the latter half of 2025 and throughout the year has improved compared to the first half of 2025 and 2024; however, it still falls short of expectations recorded in previous surveys. Credit institutions have observed a broad-based increase in credit demand, encompassing most customer groups, currencies, terms, and sectors.
In the first half and throughout 2026, corporate customers' credit demand is expected to rise more significantly than that of individual customers. Short-term loans are projected to grow more robustly than medium and long-term loans, and the demand for loans in Vietnamese dong is anticipated to increase more than foreign currency loans.
Regarding the readiness to meet the economy's capital needs, in the latter half of 2025, 87% of credit institutions reported meeting at least 75% of customer loan demands. Among them, 100% of key commercial banks stated they met at least 75% of customer loan demands.
In the six main sectors surveyed, similar to 2025, the industrial and construction development sector is expected to lead in credit demand growth in 2026. This is followed by trade and services, personal and household consumption, green sectors, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and high-tech investment.
Tightening collateral requirements expected
To encourage businesses and individuals to access credit for economic development, in the latter half of 2025, most credit institutions have tended to "maintain" or "slightly loosen" credit standards. The "slight loosening" trend mainly applies to corporate customers, including small and medium-sized enterprises. For individual customers, most credit institutions have maintained their credit standards.
Key commercial banks have shown a trend of "slightly loosening" credit standards in the latter half of 2025, with a higher degree of loosening for most customer groups and sectors, except for "securities investment" and "financial, banking, and insurance business," which continue to be "slightly tightened."
The "slight loosening" trend in credit standards is expected to continue in the first half and throughout 2026, applying to corporate customers and most priority sectors, including "green credit," "high-tech investment loans," "supporting industry investment," and "agriculture, forestry, and fisheries development," among others.
By credit institution group, joint-stock commercial banks and one-member limited liability banks are expected to "slightly loosen" credit standards in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, other groups, including state-owned commercial banks, foreign banks, and financial companies, are expected to maintain their credit standards. Key commercial banks are expected to continue "slightly loosening" credit standards.
"Overall lending terms and conditions" for corporate customers are expected to continue to be slightly loosened in the first half of 2026 compared to the latter half of 2025. However, risk management criteria, particularly the requirements for "collateral" and "minimum credit rating," are expected to be slightly tightened.
For individual customers, credit institutions have noted that in the latter half of 2025, lending conditions and terms for consumer loans and home purchase loans have shifted from "slightly loosened" to "slightly tightened." Additionally, credit card lending continues to be "slightly tightened."
In the first half of 2026, credit institutions are expected to loosen overall lending conditions and terms for individual customers again. The loosening trend mainly focuses on price-related factors and credit limits, while safety criteria such as "collateral requirements" and "debt-to-income ratio" continue to be strictly controlled.
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