In 2026, amid strictly controlled bank credit and corporate bond channels, capital flows into the real estate market are forecast to move in a more cautious and selective direction.
According to the latest report from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), as of November 30, 2025, outstanding credit for the real estate business sector reached over VND2 quadrillion (nearly $76.7 billion).
Forecasting the outlook for 2026, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) noted that while real estate credit continues to grow as numerous projects enter the sales phase and accelerate construction—driving up demand for medium- and long-term capital—access to funding will not be as favorable as in previous years.
VCBS experts explained that the current regulatory orientation aims to maintain the proportion of real estate loans at approximately 24–25% of total outstanding debt, especially as non-performing loan (NPL) risks in this sector are on the rise. Consequently, while real estate credit is increasing, it will be more strictly monitored to prevent the "overheating" witnessed in previous cycles.
On the demand side, a proposal to tighten lending ratios for second properties (which has not yet been officialized) could impact the investor segment. Additionally, interest rates are projected to edge upward in the near future.
Beyond bank credit, the real estate corporate bond market is also exhibiting a clear trend of differentiation and selectivity. Reports from the Ministry of Construction indicated that in 2025, the corporate bond market recovered gradually but not yet sustainably, despite a significant improvement in issuance volume during the second half of the year.
The banking sector continues to play a dominant role, while real estate bonds are being issued selectively, focusing on developers with strong financial capacity and the ability to accept high interest rates. the issuance structure shows a sharp divergence between industries, reflecting a prevailing sense of investor caution. Overall, while the 2025 market was more stable than in previous periods, it remained under pressure from capital costs and maturity obligations.
This pressure is not expected to ease in 2026. VCBS predicts that the volume of maturing bonds will surge in the second and fourth quarters of 2026, with a large portion tied to real estate enterprises. Simultaneously, access to new capital will continue to be more tightly controlled in terms of both issuance conditions and costs. As a result, developers with weak financial standing, high leverage, and illiquid project portfolios will face significant refinancing risks. However, experts also view this as a necessary "screening" mechanism to filter out developers as the market enters a new development cycle.
Reflecting on this reality, economist Dinh Trong Thinh assessed that the recovery momentum of the real estate bond market remains relatively cautious and modest in pace, which continues to pose challenges for bond investment activities. Consequently, both corporate issuance and market trading volumes have yet to meet expectations.
However, he noted that if the positive growth momentum from late 2025 is sustained, the market recovery could become more distinct and robust. This would gradually solidify the market's role as a vital channel for medium- and long-term capital for the economy. In such a scenario, the market will help augment financial resources and enhance the capacity to meet capital demands for production and business, creating a foundation for more sustainable economic growth.
"Regarding policy, the State must continue to act as a 'conductor' in guiding and supervising the market, but in a flexible and modern manner. Intervention should focus on perfecting a clear and transparent legal framework, ensuring discipline and market stability," the expert said.
For issuing enterprises, Mr. Thinh advised that companies must strictly comply with information disclosure regulations and maintain transparency regarding their financial status, the intended use of capital, and debt repayment capacity. Only when investors are provided with sufficient data to objectively assess risks can the bond market operate safely and sustainably, avoiding a repetition of past mistakes.
Sharing his views at a recent event, economist Can Van Luc noted that changes in the monetary environment will force real estate developers to undergo comprehensive restructuring—ranging from financial strategies and project portfolios to product structures. According to him, businesses must develop the capacity to adapt to the new interest rate environment.
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