Housing supply in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is expected to increase over the course of 2025, with the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) estimating this year’s supply at 37,000 units in Hanoi and 18,000 in Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding areas. This suggests a greater market supply than in 2024, with the addition of unfinished and unsold inventory contributing to relatively abundant supply. Apartments continue their upwards trend and maintain a leading position.

However, most new supply is in the high-end segment, keeping primary market prices elevated, while demand remains strongest for affordable housing. The shortage of the latter in major cities is driving buyers towards suburban areas and lower-tier provinces, where prices are more reasonable.

Lack of affordable options

At the recent “Real Estate 2025 - Seeking Opportunities Amidst Challenges” seminar, a representative from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment noted that property prices have surged dramatically. Newly-built apartments priced below VND50 million ($2,000) per sq m have nearly disappeared, while many older apartments now exceed VND70 million ($2,800) per sq m. Even units in old residential blocks have seen prices rise 1.5 to 2-fold, making home ownership increasingly difficult for average-income workers.

Buyers with a budget of VND3-4 billion ($120,000-$160,000) still struggle to find a suitable home. Housing prices continued to soar throughout 2024, particularly in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where some areas saw increases of up to 40 per cent year-on-year. This sharp rise not only challenges middle and low-income buyers but also threatens market sustainability.

The main reason behind this trend is the overwhelming dominance of luxury and ultra-luxury segments in new supply, while affordable apartments (below VND30 million, or $1,200 per sq m) have all but vanished.

Data from the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association shows that, since 2021, new housing projects no longer include commercial homes priced under VND30 million ($1,200) per sq m, and social housing remains in severe shortage. Meanwhile, from 2020 to 2023, high-end housing consistently accounted for about 70 per cent of annual market supply. By 2024, only luxury projects were launched for capital mobilization, with average apartment prices reaching VND91 million ($3,640) per sq m (excluding VAT). As a result, the southern city has not only lost affordable commercial housing but also mid-range housing options.

Similarly, in Hanoi, despite record-high housing supply over the past five years, prices remain steep. According to Savills Hanoi, new apartment supply in 2024 totaled 24,996 units; the highest since 2020. However, primary market prices (direct from developers) continued rising, reaching VND75 million ($3,000) per sq m, up 9 per cent quarterly and 29 per cent annually. Even Grade C apartments, once considered low-cost housing with average prices of VND30-40 million ($1,200-1,600) per sq m, have now climbed to around VND50 million ($2,000) per sq m. This makes it even more challenging for budget-conscious buyers to find homes within their financial reach.

Surging prices outpace income growth

Data from Global Property Guide shows that Vietnam’s real estate prices are rising rapidly compared to the global market. Over the past five years, Vietnam’s property prices increased by 59 per cent, surpassing countries like the US (54 per cent), Australia (49 per cent), Japan (41 per cent), and Singapore (37 per cent).

According to VARS, housing prices in Hanoi have surged dramatically while incomes have not kept pace, making home ownership increasingly unaffordable. Many households struggle to afford home purchases or keep up with mortgage payments, especially amid economic uncertainties and trade war risks affecting income growth.

VARS research indicates that the minimum recommended income to buy an average-priced home in Hanoi is 2.3 to ten-fold higher than the average household income. As of late 2024, the average monthly wage in Hanoi was VND10.7 million ($430). A four-person household with two working adults would therefore earn some VND21.4 million ($855) a month. Given the 2024 average primary apartment price of VND70 million ($2,800) per sq m, buyers would need a monthly income of between VND45 million and VND210 million ($1,800 and $8,400), depending on the location.

VARS explained that these estimates assume buyers take out a 20-year mortgage covering 70 per cent of the home’s value at an 8 per cent annual interest rate. Under financial best practices, monthly mortgage payments should not exceed 40 per cent of household income.

With the economic downturn, declining incomes may further strain affordability and increase mortgage burdens. Interest rates fluctuate, and adjustments could make home loans even more expensive, pushing some buyers beyond their repayment capacity.

Speaking at a VARS event on February 26, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyen Van Sinh acknowledged ongoing challenges in the real estate market, including limited supply, site clearance and rezoning difficulties, scattered investment, funding shortages, and rising property prices outpacing affordability.

Opportunities for low-income buyers

To address current challenges and promote a sustainable real estate market, the Ministry of Construction has proposed several solutions for relevant ministries and sectors. For developers, it advised focusing on compliance with legal regulations while also proactively restructuring their businesses, investment portfolios, and product offerings. Additionally, leveraging technology in construction and corporate management is essential to align with financial capacity, business scale, and market demand. Developers should prioritize resources for ongoing real estate projects, especially those near completion, to expedite commercialization, recover capital, and increase market supply. Investing in new projects, particularly those meeting real housing demand, such as affordable commercial housing and worker accommodation, will help stimulate overall market growth.

Addressing financial challenges is also crucial. Developers must resolve debt issues and secure access to credit and other funding sources. Expedited legal procedures are needed to commence social housing projects, including the mandated 20 per cent allocation in commercial housing developments. Additionally, registering eligible projects with local authorities can help secure preferential loans from the VND120 trillion ($4.8 billion) support package.

Experts believe home ownership is still within reach for individuals on middle to low incomes. Social housing supply is expected to rise as localities accelerate project implementation. In Ho Chi Minh City, four projects with 2,874 units will be completed this year and eight projects with 7,945 units will break ground. Meanwhile, Hanoi is set to start eight social housing projects this year with nearly 1,600 units, along with other projects ready for sale.

While affordable commercial apartments have become scarce in the primary market, some are still available on the secondary market, though mainly in suburban areas with smaller sizes. “With reasonable budgets, buyers can explore properties in outlying areas where prices are more affordable,” said Ms. Do Thu Hang, Senior Director, Advisory Services, at Savills Vietnam. “While this requires greater commuting flexibility, infrastructure development will soon make travel more convenient.”

Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, President of VARS, added that with current favorable interest rates, households or individuals with at least 30 per cent of the apartment’s value in savings can consider mortgage financing. However, buyers must be willing to relocate to lower-priced districts or satellite cities. To encourage buyers, developers must offer more reasonable pricing in line with affordability.

Looking ahead to 2025, Mr. Dinh forecasts that suburban land plots with clear legal status and prices under VND2 billion ($80,000) will continue appreciating, with auctioned land prices rising by about 10 per cent. Primary prices for villas, townhouses, and shophouses will keep climbing due to limited land availability and rising investment costs, while secondary market prices for well-established projects with residents will trend upwards and projects lacking infrastructure and occupancy will remain flat.