In the opening session of the discussion themed "Financial Market – Pillar and Growth Driver of Vietnam" at the Vietnam Investment Forum 2026, Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh, Director of Policy Research at VinUni University, stated that Vietnam aims for an annual 10 per cent growth rate starting from 2026. This implies that if the real growth target is 10 per cent, with 3 per cent inflation added, the growth rate of nominal GDP would be 13 per cent.
"To achieve this level, credit growth must surpass nominal GDP growth by about 2-3 percentage points, meaning approximately 15 per cent per year from now until 2030," he added. "Thus, in the next five years, credit will have to double."
According to Mr. Tu Anh, although there is a strong desire for the capital market to develop and share the burden, in the medium term of the next 15 years, Vietnam will still be a bank-based system economy.
Agreeing with the opinion on the pivotal role of banks in the coming years, Mr. Quan Trong Thanh, Head of Analysis at Maybank Securities Vietnam, believes that the 134 per cent credit/GDP ratio is still very safe.
According to calculations by the Ministry of Finance, to achieve an annual 10% growth rate, the total investment capital in the next five years needs about $1.4 trillion, averaging about $280 billion per year. Meanwhile, FDI accounts for only a small part ($24-30 billion per year), so more than $250 billion per year must come from domestic sources (government and private).
"The government is currently encouraging the private sector to invest in infrastructure and energy," Mr. Thanh commented. "I believe this 'pie' is expanding, and when private enterprises participate, banks are ready to finance,"
Looking at the next five years, Mr. Thanh believes that when private enterprises are the pioneers, private banks will also have outstanding development alongside private enterprises. However, he also emphasized the pivotal role of state-owned commercial banks in regulating liquidity and especially in upgrading national credit ratings.
Not only leading in capital, banks are also at the forefront of innovation. Dr. Tu Anh affirmed that the 10 per cent growth target "largely depends on whether we succeed in digital transformation." The banking sector is leading, creating a ripple effect through electronic payment system, stimulating other sectors to digitize.
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