The National Institute of Economics and Finance (NIEF), under the Ministry of Finance, on December 10 organized a scientific conference titled "Establishing an Economic Growth Model Linked to Restructuring Vietnam's Economy for the 2026-2030 Period."
The event, which saw participation from domestic economic experts, representatives from international organizations, and management agencies, served as a forum to shape the theoretical and practical basis for the country's economic development directions in the 2026-2030 period.
It also proposed breakthrough solutions to innovate the growth model and comprehensively restructure the economy, thus contributing to turning Vietnam into a high-growth economy.
Economic Restructuring Results for 2021-2025
Evaluating the situation and results of the five-year implementation of Resolution No. 31/2021/QH15 of the National Assembly (Resolution 31) on the Economic Restructuring Plan for 2021-2025, NIEF's report acknowledged that the plan has been executed amidst an unprecedentedly changing and complicated context, regionally and globally. Intense trade and strategic competition among major countries, armed conflicts, and escalating geopolitical tensions have significantly impacted global economic growth and the macroeconomic environment. Particularly, the prolonged and profound effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have affected all aspects of socio-economic life.
Domestically, despite advantages such as a stable political foundation and strengthened macroeconomics, the economy faced numerous challenges from both external factors and internal issues. However, with the decisive involvement of the entire political system and the extraordinary efforts of the people, the country overcame difficulties and continued to achieve important, comprehensive development results, with many outstanding highlights compared to the world and the region.
Resolution 31 set out 27 targets, of which 23 have been evaluated. Among them, 10 are likely to be achieved, 9 are unlikely to be achieved, and 4 are projected not to be achieved. Some targets, such as labor productivity growth, the number of enterprises, and the proportion of spending on science and technology, face significant challenges and require substantial efforts to achieve.
For the 2021-2025 period, the government issued Resolution No. 54/NQ-CP outlining 102 tasks. To date, 86 out of 102 tasks have been completed (accounting for 84.3%). However, some limitations and shortcomings have prevented the economic restructuring plan from achieving the expected results. These include slow progress in institutional and policy reforms, economic structure and growth model improvements. As a result, no significant changes recorded, while the lack of strong productivity shifts in economic sectors remained, especially in industry and services. The restructuring of state-owned enterprises and public service units has been slow and has not met expectations.
The causes of these limitations include the unstable global economic context, legal system constraints, slow amendment progress, cumbersome administrative procedures, and unresolved decentralization and delegation issues.
Moving Towards Deep Growth: The Role of TFP and Technology
To overcome these limitations and achieve the ambitious growth targets, experts at the conference emphasized the need to gradually abandon the extensive growth model, which relies heavily on capital and resources. Instead, the focus should be placed on an intensive growth model, with science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation as the main drivers.
Experts agreed that for Vietnam to achieve an annual double-digit GDP growth target (10% or more) in the 2026-2030 period, economic restructuring must be fundamentally and comprehensively implemented. Dr. Can Van Luc, an economic expert, suggested that public investment capital should be used effectively during the 2026-2030 period.
Proposing breakthrough solutions and policy recommendations, Associate Professor Dr. Le Xuan Ba emphasized the need for a stronger transition in the economic growth model, focusing on further increasing the contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). TFP includes various factors such as institutions, national governance, corporate governance, and science and technology. Therefore, Dr. Ba recommended that the current priority is to improve institutions, create a transparent legal framework, and strongly promote new economic models, especially the private sector, to maximize its role as a growth driver.
Regarding breakthrough solutions in science, technology, and productivity, the expert proposed strategic investment programs in Research and Development (R&D) and high-tech applications, thereby significantly increasing TFP's contribution to economic growth. Particularly, restructuring should focus on high-value-added sectors, especially high-tech manufacturing and processing industries.
Simultaneously, there should be a strong push for the development of the green economy, digital economy, circular economy, and data economy. This model requires quantifiable measurement indicators, ensuring macroeconomic safety and deep participation in the global value chain.
Concerning capital and labor factors, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, in the upcoming period, it is necessary to enhance investment attraction while using it more effectively. This includes increasing public investment in transportation and energy infrastructure to create spillover effects and promote double-digit growth in the coming period.
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