Singapore-headquartered United Overseas Bank (UOB) maintains Vietnam’s full year growth forecast at 6.4%, which implies an outturn of 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to its latest quarterly global outlook.  

Vietnam’s real GDP growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter of 2024, surging 7.4% year-on-year compared to median consensus view of 6.1% and UOB's forecast of 5.7%, according to the report. This is the fastest quarterly pace since the third quarter of 2022 when activities had then rebounded sharply from the trough of the pandemic.

The latest figure extended the revised 7.09% gain in the second quarter of 2024, resulting in a cumulative 6.82% year-on-year expansion in first nine months of 2024. The surprise outcome of the third quarter reflected the resilience of the economy, despite the devastations from the deadly Typhoon Yagi.

The bank predicted that Vietnam’s exports for the full year 2024 would rise by 18% year-on-year, which would be the strongest year since 2021.

For 2025, the bank anticipates an expansion pace of 6.6% for Vietnam.