The US was Vietnam’s largest export market and sixth-largest import source in the first eleven months of 2023. How would you comment on these results?

These are welcome results but not surprising. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and the US has grown from less than $6 billion in 2003 to nearly $140 billion in 2022, and there is no reason to think this trend will not continue. The US is not only Vietnam’s largest export market; Vietnam is one of the US’s most important export markets for agricultural products like cotton and grain. As Vietnam makes progress toward its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, trade volumes will continue to grow.

What are the key factors driving trade between Vietnam and the US?

There are many factors driving trade. Over the last several years, Vietnam’s role in global supply chains, from textiles to semiconductors, has grown both in scale and in importance. As we saw during the Covid-19 pandemic, resilient and diversified supply chains are vital to the global economy, and US firms have continued to turn more and more to Vietnam to ensure that resiliency and diversity. In turn, Vietnamese businesses and the country’s fast-growing consumer class are eager for world-class products and services from the US, from aviation and energy to technology, healthcare, and food.

Vietnamese and US firms also trust the strength and stability of the Vietnam-US relationship. They see the same thing as we do: bilateral relations have never been better and continue to become stronger every day. There is no better evidence of this than the visit to Vietnam by US President Joe Biden in September and the subsequent announcement that he and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong, agreed to upgrade the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

What factors need to be changed or improved to further promote trade between Vietnam and the US?

As Vietnam aims to move up the value chain, innovation and productivity will become increasingly important. Labor, technology, and streamlined regulations will occupy a central role in this regard. Training, education, upskilling, and reskilling efforts to ensure a high-quality workforce will be key to Vietnam’s success. The US is committed to working with Vietnam to achieve this.

We have 30,000 Vietnamese studying in the US each year, and the number rises to 300,000 if you count all of the Vietnamese interacting with the US education system in some way, whether in distance learning, short-term training, or other similar opportunities. We expect these numbers to continue to increase. We have also launched new STEM education and training programs, as our governments agreed to do during President Biden’s visit.

Another important factor is Vietnam’s energy transition and making tangible progress towards meeting its 2050 net-zero goal. Vietnam’s transition to green and renewable energy sources will be essential to attract high-quality investment and boost bilateral trade. Once approved, the Direct Power Purchase Agreement will facilitate this investment. This is an area where not only businesses, researchers, and governments are innovating, but non-government organizations are also playing a key role in bringing diverse perspectives to development in support of the goals of government.

When all of these elements work in concert, something like the transition to green and renewable energy is possible. We should also not forget the many Vietnamese in the US - the diaspora - who are increasingly seeking opportunities to return to Vietnam, expand people-to-people ties, and build business ties. The more support we can provide to them the better. They bring exactly the type of high-tech skills and innovation we hope for to support Vietnam’s development.

What is the outlook for trade and investment between Vietnam and the US?

As previously mentioned, trade and investment relations between Vietnam and the US will only continue to grow. Whether it is US companies investing billions of dollars across many sectors - including semiconductors - in Vietnam, or a company like VinFast investing billions of dollars in a US manufacturing base for its electric vehicles and batteries, these are trends that were built on our earlier successes.

Most US investors and firms that I talk to in Vietnam or in the US are positive about the future of trade and investment between the two countries. I see no reason to doubt their optimism.

How do you view Vietnam’s economic outlook in 2024?

I understand that for many people, especially here in Vietnam, 2023 was a year marked by economic uncertainty amid difficult external conditions. However, I see that forecasters are issuing increasingly positive prospects for growth in the year ahead, and I am cheered by the fact that longer-term growth forecasts indicate Vietnam will continue to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the region.

We have full confidence that Vietnam will live up to those projections, and we believe Vietnam’s success will translate into success for the US as well.