Vietnam Economic Times October 13, 2025

Dear readers,

Despite numerous difficulties and challenges, especially uncertainties in the global economic and geopolitical situation, the consequences of severe natural disasters at home, the new tariff policy of the US, pressure on macro-economic governance and inflation control, and high exchange rates and gold prices, among others, Vietnam’s economy still posted unexpectedly positive indicators in the first nine months of 2025 - the final year of the Five-year Socio-economic Development Plan (2021-2025).

With rising GDP growth, marked by significant increases in the first three quarters, of 6.93 per cent, 7.96 per cent, and 8.23 per cent, respectively, Vietnam’s economy posted growth of 7.85 per cent in the period. This is the second-highest nine-month result in 2011-2025, behind only the record increase of 9.44 per cent in the same period of 2022, which came off a low base in 2021 due to Covid-19.

Import and export performance remains one of the key drivers of the country’s economic growth. Total import-export turnover of goods reached a record $680.66 billion in the first nine months, an increase of 17.33 per cent, or $100.51 billion, compared to the same period of 2024, with a trade surplus of $16.83 billion recorded.

Total registered FDI into Vietnam reached $28.54 billion in the period, an increase of 15.2 per cent year-on-year, while disbursed FDI capital was estimated at $18.80 billion, up 8.5 per cent and the highest amount of disbursed

foreign capital in the first nine months for the past five years.

Tourism, for its part, continues to be among Vietnam’s high-growth economic sectors, with international tourist arrivals reaching over 15.4 million in the period, an increase of 21.5 per cent year-on-year.

Vietnam’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the first nine months is estimated to have increased 9.1 per cent compared to the same period of 2024 and higher than the 8.4 per cent increase recorded at that time. In particular, all 34 cities and provinces in the country posted a higher IIP year-on-year in the first nine months. Meanwhile, some 231,300 enterprises were newly-established or re-entered the market after a period of suspension, an increase of 26.4 per cent year-on-year. Every month, on average, some 25,700 enterprises joined or re-entered the market. At the same time, the number of businesses withdrawing from the market stood at 174,900, an increase of 6.8 per cent year-on-year, for a monthly average of 19,400.

Such figures are only a part of the economic picture for the first nine months of the year, which overall exhibits many bright spots. The result confirms the assessment made by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the regular government meeting held on October 5, where he said that with month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter improvements and nine-month performance surpassing the same period of 2024, Vietnam is on track to exceed annual and longer-term targets.

The achievements in Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months also provided a practical basis for the World Bank (WB), in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released for October, to state that “Vietnam’s edge stems from a sharp manufacturing rebound and consumer spending surge, backed by effective macro-economic management, tamed inflation, and post-pandemic aid for companies.”

Our Cover Story in this edition therefore focuses on the socio-economic achievements in September and the first nine months of 2025, with updated information highlighting the factors behind this success as well as the limitations, difficulties, and challenges in place, while forecasting economic performance over the closing months of 2025, with GDP growth of 8.3-8.5 per cent set as a final goal, which, if fulfilled, would act as a launchpad for annual double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period, in line with the direction for national development to be outlined by the upcoming 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Warmest regards

Dr. CHU VAN LAM
CHAIRMAN OF THE EDITORIAL BOARD