Vietnam’s nominal per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to reach $5,259 this year, allowing the country to overtake Indonesia and climb to fifth place in ASEAN, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook report.
The Ministry of Finance estimated that the policy would reduce budget revenue by approximately VND6,700 billion (more than $260 million) over two years.
According to Dr. Nguyen Si Dung, former Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Office, Vietnam has only taken a “half step” into a model of a State that creates policies for development. The fact that it is short of talented civil servants and breakthrough inventions has prevented it from becoming a “dragon”.
Vietnam appears to be recovering quite slowly from the pandemic, and without a sufficiently large support package will fall behind. Many economists have therefore proposed economic support packages for 2022 and 2023 totaling VND445.76 trillion ($19.5 billion), or nearly 5.5 per cent of GDP.
Vietnam is currently enjoying what is called a “golden” population structure, with about 55 million people in the workforce. Only 24.5 per cent are trained, however, and this is one factor behind Vietnam’s workplace productivity remaining quite low. Developing skilled human resources has become an important foundation for the economy to grow sustainably and in-depth.
According to Vietnamese economic analysts and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the country needs to introduce policy packages for economic recovery and development, especially as inflation is unlikely to break out. Most support packages introduced so far involve tax extensions or deferrals, etc., and account for just 1-2 per cent of GDP.
The size of the economic support package from the State budget is only equal to less than 3 per cent of GDP and should be raised to 5-7 per cent, Mr. Nguyen Minh Cuong, Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam, has said, in order to meet the needs of the country’s economy and to post positive results in economic development.
According to Mr. Nguyen Thanh Phong, Deputy Head of the Party Central Committee's Economic Commission, Vietnam’s economy lost about VND160 trillion ($7 billion) in 2020 because of the pandemic and an estimated VND346 trillion ($15 billion) this year. The total economic loss was VND507 trillion at 2010 constant prices and VND847 trillion ($37 billion) at current prices.