Inflation in Vietnam for 2024 is estimated at 4-4.5%, higher than the 3.5% recorded in 2023, according to the latest report from the Banking Research Institute under the country's Banking Academy.

The main causes are pressures from global energy and food price hike, coupled with the impact of Typhoon Yagi, which has significantly increased domestic production costs and consumer prices.

Earlier, in its October report, the Ministry of Finance outlined two inflation scenarios for 2024, based on a target of keeping the Consumer Price Index (CPI) within 4% to 4.5%.

In the first scenario, the CPI is forecast to rise 3.7% year-on-year. This low-inflation scenario reflects economic stability amid minimal fluctuations in global energy and food prices.

In another scenario, the CPI is expected to increase 3.92% year-on-year if significant adjustments are made in public service prices, including healthcare, education and electricity. This scenario reflects pressure from production and consumption cost factors.