In the first quarter of 2025, the United States, the Netherlands, and China remained the top three markets for Vietnamese cashew exports, holding market shares of 22.7%, 11.2%, and 9.8%, respectively.

Compared to the same period last year, cashew exports to the US declined by 14.5%, while shipments to China fell by 25.6% in volume and 16% in value.

In contrast, exports to certain other markets, including the Netherlands and Japan, experienced growth, reflecting initial success in diversifying export markets. Particularly notable was the 43.5% increase in cashew export value to the Netherlands.

Despite the sharp decline in Q1 exports, industry experts and businesses remain optimistic, expecting a recovery in the coming quarters as the new harvest season begins and consumer demand picks up.

Looking at national markets, the US remains Vietnam’s largest cashew importer, accounting for $1.1 billion, or 25.1% of total export value. China ranks second, with value of $687.84 million. Additionally, Vietnam’s cashew industry continues to effectively tap into the EU market, with exports to the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain showing positive growth.

"Over the past decade, the US has consistently been Vietnam’s top market for cashew exports, accounting for around 25–27% of the latter's total export turnover, followed by China with 20%, and the EU at approximately 17–18%. If the US imposes higher tariffs on cashew nuts, export volumes to this market will undoubtedly decline. In that scenario, the US may no longer be an attractive destination for Vietnamese businesses," said Mr. Tran Van Hiep, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS).

"Beyond the US, our cashew exporters also serve other markets. While higher tariffs pose immediate challenges, especially for businesses heavily dependent on the US market, this situation also creates opportunities for diversification and expansion," Mr. Hiep added.

According to Mr. Hiep, the Middle East is emerging as a promising market, with rising demand for cashews. Over the past two years, the region has become a key growth driver for Vietnam’s cashew industry. With a strong market strategy, Vietnam can potentially offset losses from the US market.

"The Vietnam Cashew Association has set an export revenue target of $4.5 billion for 2025. To achieve this goal, cashew processors must focus on three key pillars: improving product quality, diversifying markets, and strengthening trade promotion," said Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa, Vice Chairman of VINACAS.