Vietnam’s export turnover reached $291 billion in the first 10 months of this year, a fall of 6.92 per cent year-on-year, while imports totaled $266.67 billion, down 12.09 per cent.

Trade value for the year as a whole is therefore forecast to fall 9-10 per cent year-on-year but will increase next year by 5.5-11 per cent for exports and 7.5-15 per cent for imports. The trade surplus is expected to be lower than in 2023, at $18.7-$24.6 billion.

In the five-year period from 2018 to 2022, though heavily impacted by Covid-19 in 2020 and 2021, Vietnam still posted an annual average increase in trade of 11.62 per cent, with imports rising 11.27 per cent.

The upwards trend ended this year as a result of the global economic recession. Import demand in Vietnam’s main markets has continued to fall significantly, such as in the US, which accounted for 29.46 per cent of the country’s total export turnover in 2022, China 15.54 per cent, and Europe 12.61 per cent.

According to an S&P Global report on Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in October 2023, Vietnam’s trade surplus in the first ten months stood at $24.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 156.65 per cent.

A forecast from BIDV Securities Company (BSC), meanwhile, puts Vietnam’s exports and imports this year as falling 4.42 to 10 per cent and 9.09 to 15 per cent, respectively. The trade surplus will therefore come in at $28.6-$29.1 billion.