Banking & Finance

VnDirect has recommended that the short-term outlook for banking stocks calls for caution, due to concerns over rising capital costs and limited credit growth. However, in the longer term, some banks will enjoy strong profit growth over the 2022-2023 period, supported by solid asset quality, improving fee income, and reduced credit expense ratios.

The selling price of USD at the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and commercial banks is still much lower than the ceiling, despite inflation rising in the US and major currencies depreciating against the dollar. According to analysts, while the US Fed is set to raise interest rates, demand for foreign currency in Vietnam has not shown any strong increase.

Analysts have forecast that enterprises will face difficulties managing cash flows to repay bond principal and interest in upcoming quarters due to two reasons. Firstly, the corporate bond market has shrunk significantly since the beginning of the year, and secondly, cash flows into subsidiaries are controlled by Circular No. 16, Circular No. 39, and soon Decree No. 65. Meeting debt obligations is expected to be more difficult in the context of interest rates continuing to rise, which increases the burden of interest costs on many enterprises, especially those in capital-intensive industries where credit is difficult to access, like real estate.

Banking stocks, which account for the largest proportion of Vietnam Holding’s portfolio, have performed well and the fund expects this to continue into 2023 given attractive valuations and steady growth. Banking stocks account for 35 per cent of its investment, followed by industry and services with 18 per cent, retail 17 per cent, real estate 16 per cent, and technology 11 per cent.

FiinRatings released a report on September 20 assessing the impact of Decree No. 65/2022/ND-CP, which amends and supplements a number of articles in Decree No. 153/2020/ND-CP on offering and trading corporate bonds issued privately in the domestic market and offering corporate bonds in the international market. According to analysts, after Decree No. 65 is issued, corporate bond issuances will develop in a more healthy manner.

Based on the appreciation of the USD in the world market and new credit growth limits from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) for commercial banks, the Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) has forecast that the VND will depreciate by 3-4 per cent this year. It also forecasts that deposit rates will continue to increase this year, by 1-1.5 per cent.