Data released by the National Statistics Office (under the Ministry of Finance) on March 6 revealed that industrial production is estimated to have decreased by 2.2 per cent in February compared to January but increased 17.2 per cent year-on-year. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the first two months of 2025 is estimated to have grown 7.2 per cent year-on-year, compared to a 6.5 per cent increase in the same period of 2024.

Growth drivers

Manufacturing and processing expanded 9.3 per cent in February compared to 6.6 per cent in February 2024, contributing 7.9 percentage points to overall industry growth. Electricity production and distribution rose 2.3 per cent, against 13.7 per cent in 2024, adding 0.2 percentage points, and water supply, waste management, and wastewater treatment grew 8.0 per cent (1.4 per cent in 2024), contributing 0.1 percentage points. Mining, meanwhile, contracted 6.4 per cent (-1.9 per cent in February 2024), shaving 1.0 percentage point off growth.

Among cities and provinces nationwide, the IIP increased in 58 localities and declined in five during February. Strong growth was recorded in areas with robust manufacturing and electricity production, while lower increases or declines were seen where these industries, along with mining, expanded more slowly or contracted.

As of February 1, employment in industrial enterprises had risen 1 per cent month-on-month and 4.4 per cent year-on-year. Employment in State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remained stable month-on-month but increased 0.3 per cent year-on-year; in non-State enterprises grew 0.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively; and in foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) rose 1.3 per cent and 5.2 per cent.

By sector, mining employment fell 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 0.5 per cent year-on-year. Employment in manufacturing and processing rose 1.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively, and in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply remained unchanged month-on-month and edged upwards by 0.1 per cent year-on-year. Water supply, waste management, and wastewater employment also remained stable month-on-month and increased 1.3 per cent year-on-year.

Manufacturing and processing continued to lead in FDI attraction in the opening two months of the year. As of March 1, the sector had attracted $1.45 billion in newly-registered capital, accounting for 66.1 per cent of all new capital. Including additional registered capital from existing projects, total FDI inflows into the sector stood at $4.51 billion, representing 70.8 per cent of total newly-registered and additional capital.

Looming risks

Despite impressive growth in the first two months of 2025, Vietnam’s industrial production faces significant challenges amid domestic and global market fluctuations. In a recent report on industrial production and trade, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) outlined key risks that could impact Vietnam’s industrial sector.

First, the global landscape in 2025 is expected to continue evolving rapidly and unpredictably. While cooperation and development remain dominant trends, strategic competition, protectionism, new global alliances, trade wars, supply chain fragmentation, economic sanctions, and technological competition are intensifying.

Second, global economic instability and uncertainty pose risks to Vietnam’s macro-economic stability and growth prospects, particularly for an open economy like Vietnam. De-globalization is gaining momentum, and protectionist policies are on the rise. Major economies such as the US, the EU, and China are adjusting their economic strategies to safeguard national interests, with protectionist measures expected to deepen further.

Third, the transition towards a circular economy, a green economy, and low-carbon development is reshaping global FDI trends. Additionally, the implementation of Global Minimum Tax (GMT) policies may impact FDI flows and influence Vietnam’s investment attraction strategies.

The MoIT also highlighted major structural challenges. Vietnam is accelerating industrialization through science and technology to catch up with developed countries, but its growth model remains heavily reliant on cheap labor; an advantage now being eroded by automation and machinery. Industrial exports, meanwhile, remain dependent on the FDI sector.

The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, released in early March by S&P Global, stood at 49.2 in February; marking the third consecutive month below the 50-point threshold. This signals ongoing challenges in manufacturing as weak customer demand continues to drive declines in new orders and output. “Following a fall in January, new orders continued to decline in February,” the report noted. “Though the decline was modest, it was the fastest since September last year.” Survey respondents cited weak demand in both domestic and international markets. Export demand remained sluggish, with new foreign orders falling for the fourth consecutive month, leading to a second straight month of declining manufacturing output in February.

To sustain industrial growth in the months ahead, the MoIT will focus on key solutions: first, strengthening government oversight, addressing bottlenecks, and resolving challenges for ministries, localities, and businesses; second, accelerating major projects and public investment disbursement to stimulate social investment, boost consumer demand, and drive domestic market growth; and third, removing obstacles in industrial and energy projects, advancing the domestic manufacturing of equipment for renewable energy (solar and offshore wind), and localizing railway manufacturing for the North-South high-speed rail and national railway projects, to expedite economic development.

The Ministry also urged other ministries and local authorities to implement projects in line with approved regional and national plans while ensuring stable raw material supplies for key industries, particularly export-driven manufacturing.