Tag: forecast

Economic activities have picked up with the 90-day pause on US tariffs.

Vietnam has attracted a host of projects since the beginning of this year.

With impressive growth posted in the third quarter, United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its growth forecast for Vietnam in 2022 to 8.2 per cent; significantly higher than its previous forecast of 7 per cent. UOB believes that, in 2023, Vietnam’s economy will be affected to a certain degree in the context of demand in main markets continuing to slow down. Growth next year is therefore expected to be 6.6 per cent.

Optimistic about Vietnam’s economy recovering strongly after Covid-19, primarily due to greater exports and the recent return of foreign tourists, the World Bank (WB) has forecast that GDP could grow 7.2 per cent this year. It also forecasts that inflation will come in at 3.8 per cent this year and 4 per cent next.

According to KBSV Securities, despite the ongoing decline, the VN-Index is still forecast to reach 1,330 points by the end of the year, with average EPS growth of 18.3 per cent forecast for companies listed on HSX.

The BIDV Securities Company (BSC) has forecast two scenarios for Vietnam’s stock market in September. Under the first, the VN-Index will balance out at 1,270-1,280 points, moving towards 1,300-1,320 points as liquidity improves and positive sentiment spreads through the market. The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) allowing the trading of odd lots from September 2 will also have a positive effect on the market. The second scenario will happen if developed economies show signs of recession and negative sentiment appears, with the VN-Index forecast at around 1,240-1,250 points.

In its latest report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its Asia growth forecast to 4.6 per cent but kept its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth at 6.5 per cent in 2022 and 6.7 per cent in 2023. Its forecast for Vietnam’s inflation rate is also unchanged from April, at 3.8 per cent in 2022 and 4 per cent in 2023.

SSI Research has forecast that revenue growth at textile and garment manufacturing companies in Vietnam will fall over the second half of 2022 and into 2023, due to shortened order times. Yarn, fabric, logistics, and labor costs are also expected to remain high as oil prices increase and workforce competition impacts supply chains.

Though inflationary pressure will be great from the beginning of 2022, with the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday on the horizon and large-scale economic stimulus packages in place, there remains plenty of space to keep Vietnam’s CPI at below 4 per cent, economists believe. International organizations have forecast CPI of 3.5-4 per cent for the year.

Experts have predicted that cash flows won’t go into every stock in Vietnam during the second half of 2021, adding that only stocks that are able to maintain growth in the context of the pandemic and when the economy recovers will benefit. Other experts are concerned that stock prices are too high. But “high” or “low” remains subjective and depends on profit growth expectations. There are many investors who buy or sell based simply on emotions.

In a report forecasting Vietnam’s economic development, HSBC has lowered its growth projection from 6.6 per cent to 6.1 per cent due to the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak. It also predicted that the Vietnam dong (VND) exchange rate will fluctuate widely in the second half of this year.