After four decades of “Doi Moi” (Economic Renewal), Vietnam now stands at a decisive crossroads. Its growth model is increasingly revealing its limitations, and the time has come to establish a new system of growth drivers powered by data, algorithms, innovative thinking, and, above all, effective national governance.
A national scientific conference with the theme “Reforming Vietnam’s Development Model Based on Science, Technology, Innovation, and Digital Transformation” took place in Hai Phong on May 26, where policymakers, economists, and the business community discussed solutions to Vietnam’s growth challenges. Reframing the national development model is not only an urgent economic necessity but also a pathway toward realizing the country’s 2045 aspirations.
Process of development growth
Vietnam’s national development model has gradually taken shape, evolved, and matured through different stages over the 40-year period. The most defining and enduring hallmark has been a human-centered development philosophy, in which people are regarded as the central actors, the most important resource, and the ultimate objective of development.
Economic growth has consistently been pursued in harmony with social progress and equity, cultural development, environmental protection, and national independence, self-reliance, and international integration.
The achievements recorded carry historic significance. From a centrally-planned, closed economy marked by severe shortages, Vietnam has transformed into a dynamic socialist-oriented market economy. It has moved beyond poverty to become an upper-middle-income country, significantly improving the material and spiritual well-being of tens of millions of people. The scale, capacity, and competitiveness of the economy have steadily expanded, and Vietnam has become an indispensable link in global value chains.
At the same time, broad and deep international integration has enabled it to break out of isolation and embargoes, establish diplomatic relations with most countries around the world, and strengthen its position and reputation on the international stage.
However, every model has its own “cycle.” Though Vietnam’s current development model has enabled substantial economic progress, it is increasingly revealing structural bottlenecks and has yet to fully unlock the country’s inherent potential and advantages.
First, economic development remains largely extensive rather than intensive; productivity, quality, and competitiveness remain limited, while the application of science, technology, and innovation is still insufficient.
Second, the social governance model lacks integration and data interoperability, and a governance system based on real-time data has yet to be established.
Third, the management and utilization of natural resources and minerals remain inefficient, while opportunities associated with a green and sustainable development model integrated with science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation have not been fully leveraged.
Fourth, the national defense and security model still faces limitations, particularly in developing a defense industry capable of meeting the demands of a modern military. Capacity in mastering core technologies, digital infrastructure, and national data remains limited, while cybersecurity, data security, and the ability to identify and address emerging security threats have yet to match the requirements of safeguarding national digital sovereignty amid rapid technological advancement.
Fifth, foreign affairs and international integration continue to focus primarily on market expansion, attracting investment, and promoting trade, while cooperation in core technologies, R&D, knowledge transfer, and high-tech workforce training has yet to meet the demands of transforming the development model.
Sixth, national governance remains fragmented. Legislative thinking in certain areas remains management-oriented and has not kept pace with technological changes or the requirements of innovation.
The State apparatus also remains fragmented across sectors, with institutional structures not yet optimized for cross-sector coordination. Mechanisms and tools for information sharing between ministries, agencies, and local authorities remain incomplete, while intersectoral coordination capacity and data-driven governance have yet to be fully developed.
These bottlenecks represent a tangible risk of Vietnam suffering from the “middle-income trap.” If it continues along its current trajectory, the country may face shrinking development space. Therefore, transitioning to a new development model driven by science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation as breakthrough forces is an inexorable path forward.
New development model
To realize the aspiration of becoming a developed, high-income nation by 2045, Vietnam’s development model for the 2026-2045 period is envisioned as one of rapid and sustainable growth based on science, technology, and innovation.
The new system of growth drivers will operate under the principle of a “multi-stakeholder mechanism,” involving various actors in the development process. Within this framework, the political system plays the central guiding role; the business sector and economic actors serve as the direct creators of material wealth and drivers of growth; while social organizations, communities, and the intellectual sector contribute to the broader development process.
With a number of papers submitted to the conference, experts have focused on analysis and recommendations to further deepen the foundational pillars of the overall framework. Accordingly, the proposed model consists of five key components: the national governance model, the economic development model, the social development governance model, the environmental governance model, and the foreign affairs and national defense model.
Regarding the national governance model, governance is identified as the decisive pillar determining the effectiveness and efficiency of the entire system. The major conceptual leap lies in a strong shift from the traditional “administrative State” toward a “developmental State” and smart national governance.
In regard to the economic development model, the framework for 2026-2045 is based on five principles: (i) pursuing rapid and sustainable national development through breakthroughs in science, technology, and innovation; (ii) transitioning from a processing-based economy to one driven by innovation-led growth; (iii) integrating globally to strengthen resilience and national self-reliance; (iv) placing people at the center, with science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation as key drivers and businesses as the principal actors; and (v) building a developmental State with the goal of becoming a high-income developed nation by 2045.
Accordingly, economic growth during this period will be supported by a high-quality and fully developed market economy, a highly skilled workforce for strategic sectors, a culture of innovation, and advanced, green, and smart infrastructure.
Regarding cultural and social development governance, culture serves as the spiritual foundation of society, as well as a goal, a driving force, and an internal resource for development, closely linked with science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation. The objective is to build an advanced culture deeply rooted in national identity; develop cultural industries; strengthen national soft power; and accelerate the application of science, technology, and digital transformation. Accordingly, efforts should focus on developing cultural industries and cultural markets, fostering a healthy cultural environment, promoting the role of cultural communities, and advancing digital infrastructure and technologies. The goal is also to build a developed, democratic, equitable, civilized, prosperous, and happy society with a high quality of life, equality, and comprehensive human development. To this end, priorities include developing a modern labor and employment market powered by data and technology; building a universal, sustainable, and highly-adaptive social protection system; fostering a balanced population structure; and establishing a modern, equitable, inclusive, and sustainable healthcare system.
In regard to the environmental governance model, the country will move away from reactive control and remediation toward proactive prevention, ecosystem-building, and integration, positioning environmental protection at the center of the development process. Accordingly, the objective is to fundamentally and comprehensively reform environmental governance and development on the basis of science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation; establish a modern and integrated governance system; promote green transition, the circular economy, and low-carbon development; and position the environment as a foundation, enabling condition, and core competitive advantage.
Regarding the foreign affairs and national defense model, building strategic autonomy is considered an overarching requirement. In national defense, the all-people defense system must become modern, self-reliant, and resilient enough to safeguard cyberspace and national digital sovereignty. In foreign affairs, Vietnam must advance “technology diplomacy” and “digital diplomacy.”
Overall, to sustain growth in the period to come, the five components of the development model must be designed and operated in a synchronized manner within a unified framework, enabling Vietnam’s socio-economic engine to accelerate in what leaders describe as “the era of the nation’s rise.”
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