Vietnam's coffee export has surged in 2024, driven by a significant increase in prices. In the first nine months of the year, the country exported 1.12 million tons of coffee, valued at nearly $4.37 billion, decreasing by 10.5% in volume, but significantly increasing by 39.6% in value.

As a result, the export value in the nine-month period surpassed the total export value recored in 2023, at $4.24 billion.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development predicts that coffee exports for 2024 will reach a new record of $5 billion or even $5.5 billion.

Coffee has become the most valuable agricultural export commodity for Vietnam. In September 2024, the average export price reached a record high of $5,469 per ton. For the first nine months, the average price was $3,897 per ton, a 56% increase compared to the same period last year.

According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the surge in coffee prices is primarily due to a global increase in demand for Robusta coffee beans, coupled with a decline in supply. Robusta coffee accounts for 94% of Vietnam's cultivated coffee area.

Mr. Hai noted that Robusta coffee prices have historically been lower than Arabica coffee. However, recent price increases have seen Robusta coffee exceed Arabica by nearly $1,000 per ton. This unprecedented phenomenon is attributed to the reduction in Robusta coffee supply due to climate change.

VICOFA forecasts that coffee prices may continue to rise in the near future due to ongoing supply constraints caused by weather factors. The Vietnam’s 2024-2025 crop year faces challenges from unfavorable weather conditions, including the El Niño phenomenon, leading to drought and pest problems. Coffee production is expected to decline by 5-15% compared to the previous year.