Banking & Finance

In an updated report, Dragon Capital said that in an environment of rising interest rates, expected returns in the stock market are unlikely to be outstanding. In the short term, the market will see many fluctuations depending on developments around the world. However, the influence of external factors on Vietnam is much lower than in emerging countries and is not systematic.

At a press conference announcing results in the banking industry in the third quarter of 2022, Ms. Ha Thu Giang, Deputy Director of the Credit Department for Economic Sectors at the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), said that as of September 16, credit in the economy had increased 10.47 per cent compared to the end of 2021 and 17.19 per cent year-on-year.

After the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s decision to raise the operating interest rate, analysts believe that the net interest margin (NIM) in the industry will narrow but the impact will differ. Banks with high CASA ratios will be more resilient, while banks with low LDR or short-term capital ratios for medium and long-term loans will be under less pressure.

According to VnDirect Securities, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has decisively and promptly responded to changes in the international financial market. However, an increase of 100 basis points in the operating interest rate was unexpected, and higher than the forecasted 50 basis points. VnDirect believes the rate may increase by an additional 30-50 points during the closing months of the year. The 12-month deposit interest rate at commercial banks will rise to 6.1-6.3 per cent per annum by end-2022, which is still lower than the pre-pandemic 7.0 per cent per annum.

Following a decision by the US Fed on September 22, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) joined the global trend and increased operating interest rates for VND from 4 per cent to 5 per cent. The move will not really have an impact, however, because no bank has borrowed capital from the central bank for many years.

A recent banking report from VnDirect shows that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has loosened credit limits on 18 banks. Sacombank now has the highest limit, at 4 per cent, followed by MB and Vietcombank with 3.2 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively. TPBank, Eximbank, and LienVietPostBank also received adjustments. The SBV prioritized banks with a healthy credit structure in extending limits. According to VnDirect, total credit growth is estimated at 13 per cent by the end of the year following this adjustment; close to the 14 per cent target set by the central bank.