Banking & Finance

Dragon Capital believes that Vietnam’s monetary policy is tending towards caution and becoming narrower. It has also assessed that an official increase in operating interest rates by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) may not be seen this year.

SSI has forecast that deposit interest rates may increase 0.5-0.7 percentage points over the final two quarters of the year and the year as a whole, adding to the existing 1-1.5 per cent per annum rate. Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS), meanwhile, said the race to increase deposit rates will affect profits to the end of the year.

BIDV Securities (BSC) believes that a post-diluted earnings-per-share (EPS) growth of about 18 per cent, when the rate in the 2019-2021 period was 5 per cent, will present a “big opportunity” for Vietnam to reach its long-term stock investment targets in 2023-2024 if its economy is able to withstand the pressure created by the Fed raising interest rates and can continue to maintain growth.

The Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has issued an action plan for the banking industry to implement the “Restructuring the system of credit institutions associated with bad debt settlement in the 2021-2025 period” project. The project clearly states the action plan for the banking industry on matters such as handling bad debts, improving credit quality, and boosting the financial capacity and operational efficiency of the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC).

Profit growth slowed on average in the second quarter of 2022, according to VnDirect. The net profit of companies on HoSE, HNX, or UPCoM was not as high as in the first quarter.

Inflationary pressure will persist until the end of the year and even into the beginning of 2023, analysts believe. The main cause is cost-push, with monetary factors a secondary cause. Minimizing the negative impact of rising raw material, gasoline, and food prices will determine the effectiveness of inflation management.