Vietnam is forecast to post GDP growth of 5.34 per cent in 2023 under the first of three scenarios introduced by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) at a workshop in Hanoi on July 10.

Under this first scenario, exports are projected to fall 5.64 per cent and the CPI will rise 3.43 per cent, with a trade surplus of $9.1 billion posted.

Under the second scenario, given monetary and fiscal easing in Vietnam, GDP growth is set at 5.72 per cent, with exports down 3.66 per cent and the CPI up 3.87 per cent, with a trade surplus of $10.3 billion posted.

And the third scenario sets GDP growth at 6.46 per cent in the context of positive changes in the global economy. Exports will fall 2.17 per cent, the CPI will increase 4.39 per cent, and the trade surplus will be $6.8 billion.