Though forecasts put Vietnam’s economic growth in 2023 at a positive 6.47 per cent, there are many economic analysts warning that a host of difficulties are in need of effective measures.

Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) Tran Thi Hong Minh said a number of new trends are likely to have wide and long-term effects on the global economy.

The rising risk of recession, the continuing Russia - Ukraine conflict, and disruptions to the supply chains of many essential products are all factors with lingering effects on the economy.

In that context, Vietnam and its open economy will be influenced by more external factors this year than in previous years, Ms. Minh believes.

Head of CIEM’s General Research Department Nguyen Anh Duong said that given the context, the Institute has put forward two scenarios for Vietnam’s growth in 2023, of 6.47 per cent and 6.83 per cent.

Socio-economic recovery and development will not be sustainable if it simply depends on monetary and fiscal solutions, Mr. Duong said. Vietnam cannot separate its micro-economic reforms from the task of maintaining stability in the macro-economy and responding to external shocks.

Regarding monetary policy management, economist Associate Professor Tran Tho Dat said that although Vietnam succeeded in controlling interest rates in 2022, the “cost” of keeping the exchange rate stable involved increasing interest rates twice within just a month, by one percentage point each time.

He also noted the fall in people’s trust in the financial market last year. Economic growth reached over 8 per cent, the highest for a decade, but the stock market tumbled. “This problem needs to be analyzed, to establish a clearer picture between the actual economy and the financial market,” he said.