Vietnam’s economy maintained its strong momentum over the course of the second quarter of 2025, with GDP growth supported by solid industrial and service sector gains. The country recorded its highest first-half growth in 15 years, at 7.52 per cent, revealing resilience despite myriad global trade uncertainties. Consumer prices rose 3.31 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the National Statistics Office at the Ministry of Finance. While inflation remains within targets, rising food and foodstuff costs are increasingly straining household budgets, posing challenges and opportunities for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) segment.
Mixed performance
According to the FMCG Monitor Q2 2025 report from Worldpanel by Numerator, Vietnam’s FMCG market showed mixed performance across categories in the quarter, reflecting cautious consumer spending in both urban and rural areas. In the four key urban cities, overall FMCG spending grew 2 per cent, driven largely by modest price increases of 2 per cent despite a 3 per cent fall in volume. Beverages experienced the steepest contraction, with a 9 per cent dip in volume and a 6 per cent decline in spending, even as average prices rose 4 per cent. Packaged Foods also saw reduced volume, of 1 per cent, but maintained slight spending growth, also of 1 per cent, due to higher prices. Dairy, Personal Care, and Home Care were relatively more resilient, with stable or slightly positive spending trends.
In rural areas, the downturn was more pronounced in volume terms, especially for Beverages (-10 per cent) and Packaged Foods (-6 per cent), though price hikes cushioned some of the spending declines. Overall FMCG spending in rural areas fell 3 per cent, with volumes down 6 per cent.
The data underlines a clear shift in consumer priorities towards essential needs and value-seeking behavior. The sharp contraction in Beverages and Packaged Foods, traditionally discretionary or celebratory categories, suggests households are cutting back on non-essential indulgences amid economic uncertainty. The relatively stable performance in Dairy, Personal Care, and Home Care points to a focus on basic nutrition and hygiene.
Ms. Tran Dieu Huong from the Domestic Market Management and Development Agency at the Ministry of Industry and Trade said FMCG remain a cornerstone of Vietnam’s socio-economic life. “From 2021 to 2024, total retail sales in the FMCG sector grew by an average of 10 per cent annually, against the backdrop of GDP growth reaching 7.09 per cent in 2024 and projected at 8 per cent in 2025,” she noted. “The market is undergoing a strong shift towards greener, cleaner, and healthier consumption, with greater emphasis on product origin and production processes.”
Lower confidence
Despite positive GDP figures, consumer confidence in Vietnam has fallen to its lowest level since the major Covid-19 wave in 2021. This decline stems from a combination of factors: the unpredictable global trade environment, which fuels economic uncertainty, and, more recently, a surge of news on the government’s intensified crackdown on counterfeit goods and substandard food products. The resulting concern over product authenticity is expected to significantly reshape shopper behavior.
The Worldpanel by Numerator report shows that consumer confidence in Vietnam’s four key urban cities fell sharply in the second quarter, hitting its lowest point since Covid-19 in 2021. Only 62 per cent of households believe the economic situation will improve or at least remain stable over the next 12 months, down from 70 per cent in the first quarter and well below the recent peak of 80 per cent in the second quarter of 2024. This decline is attributed to a mix of negative economic and trade news, coupled with the government’s intensified crackdown on counterfeit goods, which has weighed on both market sentiment and retail activity. The trend reflects growing consumer caution, marking a clear shift from the more optimistic outlook in early 2024.
This sharp drop in sentiment signals a potential cooling period for discretionary spending in the coming quarters, particularly in non-essential categories. While essential goods like FMCG products are likely to remain resilient, retailers and brands may face greater pressure to deliver value-driven propositions, targeted promotions, and innovative engagement strategies to sustain consumer interest.
Brands can expect heightened scrutiny from shoppers, who will be more selective in their purchases, actively seeking trusted brands and verified sources. Value-consciousness will increasingly extend beyond price to include quality, safety, and brand reliability. With living costs rising, consumers are likely to prioritize essential goods over discretionary items, leading to more deliberate spending decisions.
The FMCG sector plays a vital role in daily life, providing high-turnover products such as food and beverages (F&B) and household hygiene items. Amid rapid digital transformation and the rise of multi-channel retail, the entire value chain, from production to consumption, is being reshaped. This shift demands that businesses rethink their strategies, embrace technology, and enhance operational efficiency to remain competitive.
At the same time, the growing emphasis on green, safe, and transparently-sourced products is becoming a decisive factor in purchasing behavior. Vietnamese FMCG companies that can leverage domestic raw materials, invest in innovation, and build green, sustainable brands will gain a significant edge in both domestic and international markets.
Transformation for adaptation
The report highlighted that online platforms and minimarkets continue to lead as the fastest-growing retail channels, underscoring a clear trend towards modernization and a more convenient shopping experience. This presents significant opportunities for brands to adapt, expand their shopper base, and increase basket sizes within these key channels.
At the same time, the modern retail distribution network and FMCG e-commerce are also seeing robust growth. “In 2024, e-commerce grew by over 22 per cent and is expected to account for 10 per cent of total retail sales in 2025,” Ms. Huong noted.
However, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) still face challenges in capital, technology, and digital talent. Comprehensive support policies are being rolled out, from investments in logistics infrastructure and credit and tax incentives to workforce training and improved legal frameworks for livestream commerce, with the goal of making FMCG a sustainable driver of domestic growth.
According to Ms. Huong, major e-commerce platforms such as Shopee, Lazada, and Tiki have become familiar shopping destinations for urban consumers. Surveys reveal that 73 per cent of these consumers search for information online before making a purchase. Businesses in the FMCG sector are actively adopting multi-channel retail models and integrating cashless payment solutions to enhance the shopping experience.
Ms. Doan Trang Ha Thanh, Chief Operating Officer at Lazada Vietnam, emphasized that digital transformation in operations and distribution has become a key factor for food and FMCG businesses to optimize performance. “Enterprises are encouraged to invest in sustainable operations on digital platforms, accelerate logistics digitalization, and boost livestream sales activities,” she stressed. “Digitalizing distribution not only shortens processing time and reduces operating costs but also enhances market reach, especially for products requiring careful preservation, such as fresh food, thereby enabling scale expansion and strengthening competitiveness in digital commerce channels.”
In an era where consumer preferences are evolving towards convenience, sustainability, and digital engagement, Vietnam’s FMCG sector stands at a pivotal juncture. The convergence of modern retail, e-commerce, and advanced logistics is opening unprecedented opportunities for brands to innovate and expand.
With strong policy support, strategic digital transformation, and a customer-centric approach, the FMCG industry is poised not only to sustain growth but also to become a powerful engine driving Vietnam’s domestic economy forward.
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