The first quarter of 2024 paints a mixed picture for Vietnam's market, with profit growth tapering off amid lackluster performances from key sectors. While some industries show promise, others struggle to meet expectations, signaling potential challenges ahead.
The State Bank of Vietnam has begun selling US dollars to curb a rapidly appreciating exchange rate, offering relief to banks with negative foreign currency positions.
The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) has said the lack of a legal foundation for fintech and the circular economy raises concerns about risks and negative consequences. It is therefore necessary for Vietnam to accelerate the testing of a sandbox mechanism in the banking sector.
After the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) raised the ceiling interest rate for deposits under six months to 6 per cent per annum, many banks increased their rates from October 25. The highest is at SCB, at up to 9.3 per cent per annum. Analysts have forecast that interest rates will continue to increase over the closing months of the year due to exchange rate pressure and inflation.
Mr. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, said the valuations of Vietnamese bank stocks are currently quite low compared to expected earnings growth of at least 30 per cent in 2022 and 20 per cent in 2023. In the long term, the banking sector will continue to be attractive due to high margins, well-controlled asset quality, low mortgage and retail penetration, and rising earnings.
The Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group (VNPT)’s VNPT Money has launched a feature for transferring and receiving money using VietQR codes with 36 banks on the Napas system. This service will increase the coverage of touchless payments via Mobile Money. There are now nearly 1 million Mobile Money users.
Liquidity in the banking system has risen in recent times, helping to cool interbank interest rates. The overnight interbank interest rate has fallen from more than 8.35 per cent per annum to 7.72 per cent. According to the Vietnam Interbank Market Research Association (VIRA), liquidity is forecast to be less of an issue but still not abundant.
At the end of the session on September 6, the interbank interest rate for VND loans was 5.44 per cent per annum for an overnight term, only slightly lower than the last peak of 5.56 per cent per annum in February 2016. Liquidity in the system is still tight and interbank interest rates continue to increase despite the State Bank of Vietnam’s intervention.
On August 30, 2022, in Ho Chi Minh City, HDBank and DEG co-organized a “German Desk Networking Event”, looking back on the one-year journey of German Desk cooperation. Through the German Desk, the German Government and DEG have provided support packages and financial solutions to businesses for sustainable economic development. HDBank has also provided commercial banking solutions for German businesses in Vietnam as well as Vietnamese businesses exporting to Germany and other European countries.
According to FiinGroup, credit increased strongly in the first half of the year but the average completion of annual profit plans for 2022 in the banking industry stands at just 51.5 per cent. Twenty-six of the 27 listed banks have set a target of after-tax profits growing more than 33 per cent, but their ability to complete plans is relatively low without additional credit lines.
Forbes announced the Top 50 best listed companies in Vietnam in 2022 in early August, in which the banking sector has seven representatives: Vietcombank, Vietinbank, BIDV, VIB, ACB, MB, and TPBank.
Banks have been permitted to increase their charter capital and this has had a positive impact on the banking industry in general and banking stocks in particular.
Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) noted that the 12-month deposit interest rate had increased again by the end of July, by 0.07 percentage points to 5.77 per cent per annum. Rates may rise again in August. Instead of an increase of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, some banks raised rates by between 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points compared to June.
SSI has forecast that deposit interest rates may increase 0.5-0.7 percentage points over the final two quarters of the year and the year as a whole, adding to the existing 1-1.5 per cent per annum rate. Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS), meanwhile, said the race to increase deposit rates will affect profits to the end of the year.