Mr. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, said the valuations of Vietnamese bank stocks are currently quite low compared to expected earnings growth of at least 30 per cent in 2022 and 20 per cent in 2023. In the long term, the banking sector will continue to be attractive due to high margins, well-controlled asset quality, low mortgage and retail penetration, and rising earnings.
Amid a plunging local stock market and a growing risk of global crisis, a number of foreign funds such as Dragon Capital, VinaCapital, and Dynam Capital have expressed a belief that Vietnam’s economy is superior to others around the world. The Economist magazine has listed countries most at risk from imported inflation and supply chain disruptions, and Vietnam is not among them.
Vietnam’s stock market fell from 1,500 points at the beginning of 2022 to 1,074.52 points on October 6, and foreign capital has continued to be withdrawn. However, VinaCapital analysts still have a positive assessment of the prospects for Vietnamese stocks and believe now is a good time to accumulate stocks.
VinaCapital has forecast that the US stock market will see another decline and may affect Vietnam’s stock market. However, the fund also expects Vietnam’s stock market to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the US Fed’s turnaround, as Vietnam has the most attractive valuations in the region and a higher growth rate, including the second-highest growth in corporate profits, only after Indonesia.
Mr. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, has said that Vietnam’s resilience and growth in GDP and incomes will boost the VN-Index significantly if and when the US Fed eases interest rates.
VinaCapital has lowered its 2022 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.5 per cent due to obstacles in Vietnam’s economy from high energy prices and the slow reopening of all foreign tourism.
Mr. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, believes that the profits of listed companies will increase sharply next year and recommends that investors not sell shares at this time.