As the first quarter of 2024 draws to a close, glimpses of the economic landscape for the year have begun to emerge. Despite promising indicators, such as the resurgence of the processing and manufacturing sector, private investment dwindles, leaving businesses grappling with numerous hurdles.

To realize the ambitious growth targets for 2024, experts underscore the imperative of revitalizing the business landscape, not only to spur immediate growth but also to lay a robust foundation for the future.

Foreign Investment: A Beacon of Hope

Amidst the economic tumult, foreign investment shines as a beacon of hope. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a brighter global growth trajectory, buoyed by the resurgence of the US and emerging economies. IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva exhales a sigh of relief, signaling the escape from the specter of global recession and stagnation.

Yet, amidst this optimism lurks a shadow of uncertainty. Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute for Brand Strategy and Competitiveness Research, was quoted by the Vietnam Financial Times as delineating the global environment's essence: instability, insecurity, uncertainty, and the looming specter of the unexpected.

For Vietnam, glimmers of positivity emerge amidst the economic haze. With a first-quarter growth rate of 5.66%, the manufacturing sector reclaims its mantle as a potent growth engine. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to surge against global trends, injecting vitality into the economy. However, amidst these rays of hope, challenges persist, casting shadows over the economic horizon.

The Plight of Private Investment and Consumption

The waning allure of private investment looms large, evidenced by a meager credit growth index of 0.26% in the first quarter. Despite concerted efforts to alleviate regulatory bottlenecks and slash interest rates, the real estate market languishes at abysmal levels, stifling investment fervor.

Simultaneously, consumption growth experiences a rapid deceleration since the first quarter of 2023. The exodus of businesses outweighs newcomers, echoing a chorus of dwindling trust in the market and investors.

The newspaper also cited Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, Member of the Monetary Policy Advisory Council, who underscores the pivotal role of domestic businesses in fostering sustainable growth. Despite a surge in exports, with FDI sectors comprising 73%, the overreliance on foreign investment underscores the frailty of the domestic business landscape. To chart a path towards autonomous development, a robust domestic business ecosystem is indispensable.

Charting a Course for Growth

In the quest for growth, experts advocate a multi-pronged approach, encompassing monetary and financial reforms, consumption stimulation, and fortification of the business milieu. Dr. Vo Tri Thanh emphasizes the need for expeditious implementation of policies, delineating three pivotal policy clusters: monetary and financial, consumption stimulation, and foundational reforms.

Despite strides towards economic liberalization, bureaucratic hurdles and conflicting interests impede progress. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien calls for a paradigm shift, urging stakeholders to convert challenges into opportunities for Vietnamese businesses.

A Glimmer of Hope

While the economic road ahead remains fraught with challenges, HSBC Bank forecasts brighter growth prospects for Vietnam in 2024. With steadfast resolve, the nation marches towards a projected GDP growth rate of 6%, underpinned by optimism for a more widespread recovery in the latter half of the year.

Dr. Vo Tri Thanh remains cautiously optimistic, buoyed by the prospect of a more positive economic trajectory in 2024. As Vietnam navigates through storms of uncertainty, the beacon of hope illuminates a path towards a future characterized by robust institutions, resilient infrastructure, and a skilled workforce, paving the way for a transformative leap in development.

While challenges abound, the clarion call for revitalizing businesses resonates as a harbinger of opportunity amidst adversity. As Vietnam stands at the cusp of economic transformation, the convergence of policy reforms, entrepreneurial dynamism, and global partnerships herald a promising trajectory towards sustainable growth and development.