The US decision to temporarily hold off on imposing steep reciprocal tariffs - opting instead for a 10 per cent rate over a 90-day period - offers a brief reprieve amid ongoing trade tensions. This short “pause” presents a golden opportunity in the second quarter for Vietnamese exporters of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products to proactively explore solutions and strengthen their foothold before risks escalate.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s exports of these products to the US reached $13.8 billion in 2024, accounting for 21.6 per cent of the sector’s total export value. With this result, the US retained its position as Vietnam’s top export market, just ahead of China, which posted $13.6 billion in import value.

Overcoming volatility

In just over a week, Vietnam’s agricultural export scene has experienced a host of unpredictable shifts. The US’s sudden announcement of sharply increased reciprocal tariffs, followed just days later by a 90-day pause, has caused a surprising turn in market dynamics.

As a leading Vietnamese pepper exporter to the US, Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board at the Phuc Sinh Group, said that between April 2 and 9, most of their US import partners either postponed or canceled pepper orders, citing the potential tariff hike as a major risk. However, since April 10, after the US temporarily suspended the reciprocal tariffs, orders have flooded in, with importers sending urgent messages requesting shipments. The sudden surge has forced the company to ramp up production to a three-shift schedule.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, Vietnam exported around 230,000 tons of pepper in 2024, earning $1.31 billion. Exports to the US reached 72,300 tons, generating about $409 million in revenue and accounting for 31 per cent of Vietnam’s total pepper export revenue. In the first quarter alone, Vietnamese enterprises exported nearly 47,300 tons of various pepper types, valued at $324.6 million, down 16.7 per cent in volume but up 37.8 per cent in value compared to the same period last year, thanks to high market prices. Exports to the US totaled 11,019 tons, worth $83.4 million.

For coffee, Vietnam’s Robusta prices set a record in the second half of March, exceeding $5,700 per ton, a jump of over 73 per cent compared to the same time last year. However, in the first ten days of April, export prices plunged, dropping below $4,800 per ton by April 9. Since April 11, both global and Vietnamese export prices have shown signs of recovery.

As of April 15, prices on the London exchange had marked their fifth consecutive day of gains, reflecting market relief as US tariff concerns subsided. On April 15, Robusta coffee prices rose by 3.22 per cent to 3.92 per cent compared to April 14. Specifically, the May futures contract rose by $164 to $5,263 per ton, while the July contract increased by $190 to $5,239 per ton. However, prices have yet to return to their pre-tariff-scare peak, as on April 1 the May Robusta contract was trading at $5,366 per ton. Vietnam’s export coffee price has now recovered to around $5,200 per ton; still well below the March peak.

Ahead of the curve

Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Product Association (VIFOREST), emphasized that Vietnam is making the most of the 90-day window granted by the US. During this crucial period, VIFOREST and regional associations are ramping up trade promotion efforts and accelerating market diversification initiatives. At the same time, many businesses are actively developing contingency plans to adjust and expand their market reach.

In the immediate term, companies are racing to fulfill and export existing orders before the tariff suspension expires. Alongside this push, they are working to strengthen partnerships and tap into alternative markets, including Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Businesses are also reevaluating their customer portfolios, turning greater attention to domestic consumption, investing in workforce training, and streamlining production processes to build resilience from within.

Mr. Phan Hoang Duy, Deputy CEO of the Can Tho Seafood Import-Export JSC (Caseamex), said the company currently exports pangasius (catfish) to more than 30 countries and territories, with the US accounting for over half of total output. “The US is not just our largest export destination, it sets the tone for other markets due to its stability and influence,” he said. “In recent weeks, we have been accelerating efforts to diversify our export base, reconnecting with long-time partners across Europe, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Australia, and several Asian markets. At the same time, we are tightening operational costs, restructuring our customer base, and investing in workforce upskilling to reinforce our internal capacity.”

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam exports about $2 billion worth of seafood to the US each year, representing around 20 per cent of the country’s total seafood export value. The US remains the leading market for Vietnamese shrimp and tuna, and the second-largest for pangasius. Its strategic significance extends far beyond volume, as its preferences and trends influence global buyer behavior.

“This 90-day grace period is a critical opportunity,” Ms. Le Hang, Market Analyst at VASEP, stressed. “Seafood exporters should expedite shipments already in transit to reach end markets before any tariffs take effect. Simultaneously, businesses must rethink their strategic positioning, exploring new or underutilized markets like ASEAN or the Middle East. The goal now is to create a more diversified and shock-resistant export ecosystem.”

Reshaping global footprints

Recognizing the inherent risks of an overreliance on a single market, many Vietnamese agricultural producers and processors are actively pursuing strategies to diversify their export destinations and broaden their partner base. In tandem, they are investing in modern production technologies, improving quality control systems, and enhancing traceability transparency.

GC Food, a leading Vietnamese exporter and processor of fruit-based products, and the country’s largest producer of aloe vera and nata de coco (coconut jelly), is a case in point. According to Mr. Pham Van Thu, Chairman of the Board at GC Food, the company previously focused heavily on the US market. Today, its products are shipped to 22 countries and territories. Looking ahead to 2025, India is expected to emerge as a high-growth market, while efforts are also underway to expand in ASEAN countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. “Our top priorities are to accelerate digital transformation across all business operations and adopt advanced technologies to improve yield efficiency from raw materials to finished products,” Mr. Thu shared.

Vietnamese honey producers are also navigating a shifting global landscape. The US remains the largest export destination for Vietnamese honey, but market access has become increasingly challenging. Mr. Lu Nguyen Xuan Vu, CEO of the Xuan Nguyen Group, noted that the company’s honey exports to the US have fallen by over 40 per cent in the last three years. While the company has explored new opportunities in China, it faces fierce price competition from domestic Chinese producers.

For Mr. Vu and many others in the industry, market diversification and value-added processing are now seen as essential strategies, not only to weather current turbulence but also to restructure and upgrade value chains. It offers a chance for Vietnamese businesses to assert themselves on the global stage with resilience and innovation. Along this journey, agility and a forward-thinking mindset will be key to navigating uncertainty and turning challenges into momentum.