Amid ongoing global economic uncertainties, marked by slowing growth in many major economies and declining global consumption and investment demand, Vietnam continues to demonstrate strong resilience and recovery. The country has maintained a positive growth trajectory over the past six months. Building on this momentum, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that Vietnam’s GDP could reach around $514 billion in 2025, with a population estimated at 102 million. The country’s population growth remains stable at an average of 1 per cent annually, with the workforce making up approximately 50 per cent of the population. Average workplace productivity is expected to reach about $10,080 per person.

To navigate the challenges ahead while sustaining a high average growth rate over at least the next two decades, Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Principal Country Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam, emphasized the need for a long-term, well-coordinated development strategy, accompanied by the effective implementation of key policy measures.

Growth scenarios

Based on Vietnam’s current economic development conditions, the ADB has proposed two growth scenarios for the country through 2045. Under the high-growth scenario, Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 10 per cent. By 2030, the economy could reach a size of $828 billion, with a population of 107 million and workplace productivity of approximately $15,500 per person.

According to the ADB, if this growth momentum is maintained, Vietnam’s GDP could reach $3.45 trillion by 2045. At that point, the population would increase to around 124 million, and workplace productivity would rise to $55,600 per person, on par with Spain and higher than Slovenia and Saudi Arabia in 2025.

In the low-growth scenario, Vietnam’s GDP would expand at an average annual rate of 8 per cent. By 2030, GDP is estimated to reach $755 billion, with the population remaining at around 107 million. However, workplace productivity would be lower than in the high-growth scenario, at around $14,100 per person. If this growth rate continues through 2045, the economy would be valued at about $2.39 trillion, with a population of 124 million and average workplace productivity reaching $38,500 per person.

However, in the long term, with a 20 to 50-year outlook, Mr. Hung emphasized that the country will continue to face major challenges related to development resources. These include limited geographical space, slower population growth that constrains the expansion of the workforce, and the need to supplement or attract external resources such as minerals, capital, and technology. “Therefore, to sustain high average growth over at least the next 20 years, Vietnam must adopt a long-term and consistent development strategy, supported by the effective implementation of key policy priorities,” he stressed.

A core requirement, he continued, is the establishment of a successor leadership team that spans at least two or three generations, to ensure continuity and stability in policy direction. In particular, the senior leadership - those directly responsible for policy execution - must possess strong organizational and management capabilities along with the ability to stay updated with international-level knowledge and skills consistent with high-income countries. “An effective mechanism for filtering and selecting high-quality policy ideas is also critical to help Vietnam respond flexibly to the increasingly rapid and complex changes in global political, economic, social, and security environments,” Mr. Hung said.

Seven governance principles

Alongside developing a long-term and consistent development strategy, Vietnam must also establish and uphold seven fundamental mechanisms and principles in socio-economic governance to support its double-digit growth ambitions, according to experts from the ADB.

First, ensure a mechanism for wealth creation. This mechanism currently plays a pivotal role in driving Vietnam’s high growth rate. Therefore, the country needs to fully leverage market economy principles, with fair competition and the protection of public interests placed at the core.

Second, ensure a mechanism for social distribution through the effective implementation of social policies, particularly in healthcare, education, and environmental protection, with the active and responsible involvement of the business sector.

Third, ensure development space that combines national strength with the spirit of the times. This involves proactive, deep international integration and enhanced competitiveness at all levels, from enterprises and government to individuals and communities, to strengthen Vietnam’s position in the global market.

Fourth, maintain sound macro-economic orientation. In this regard, long-term aggregate demand should stem from exports to international markets, while long-term aggregate supply must be grounded in the expansion of production capacity and the growth of the workforce.

Fifth, enhance public governance effectiveness. According to Mr. Hung, improving the capacity and efficiency of public services is a key competitive factor, especially when benchmarking Vietnam against peer countries.

Sixth, improve investment efficiency. Investment outcomes will largely depend on the quality of the business environment, including the ability to mobilize and unlock resources, and, where needed, decisively phase out underperforming enterprises.

Finally, strengthen risk governance capacity. “Vietnam must maintain macro-economic stability and improve its resilience to shocks such as climate change, natural disasters, pandemics, geopolitical and geo-economic tensions, and economic security threats, especially cybersecurity threats,” Mr. Hung added.

Unlocking the potential of new sectors

In addition to formulating a long-term strategy and ensuring effective governance mechanisms, Mr. Hung also proposed several specific measures to help Vietnam realize its growth ambitions in the years ahead.

First, it needs to unlock new service sectors, especially high-value services such as legal, financial and accounting, engineering design, and management services, which can be enhanced by technological support. New industries driven by innovation, as well as cultural and creative industries, should also be developed. At the same time, the country should expand public services with the participation of private service providers to reduce the burden on State-run services and improve productivity by leveraging enterprise capacity and digital technologies.

Another key pillar is the development of factor markets, including financial and capital markets, labor markets linked with higher education and vocational training, insolvency markets, and technology markets. These should be oriented towards greater integration with international markets to enhance operational efficiency.

Vietnam is also encouraged to prioritize investment in “quality, high-return” infrastructure to create a competitive project market. This would increase the efficiency of public investment, expand implementation capacity, and shorten project delivery timelines. In terms of human development, more effective social policies are needed, covering education, healthcare, social housing, and financial services, to unlock resources currently tied up in precautionary household savings.

Additionally, Mr. Hung recommend that Vietnam focus on strengthening public governance capacity to meet international standards and gradually align its business environment with global norms. This includes adopting digital technologies, enabling domestic firms to improve their global competitiveness, and allowing foreign enterprises to participate in the domestic market to increase investment and business efficiency. “At the same time, ensuring the protection of the public interest, addressing market failures, and minimizing long-term social costs stemming from unfair competition are all essential components for sustaining long-term economic growth,” he emphasized.