As Vietnam prepares to step into 2026, questions surrounding its economic trajectory and investment outlook have become more pressing than ever. Global uncertainties, shifting capital flows, and a rapidly-evolving domestic market are forcing both policymakers and investors to reassess their strategies.
At the Vietnam Investment Forum 2026, held in Ho Chi Minh City on November 4, economists and financial leaders held an optimistic view overall of Vietnam’s economic outlook for the coming year. Despite global headwinds from US tariff policies and trends towards monetary easing at central banks, Vietnam continues to demonstrate macro-economic stability and resilient growth momentum.
Resilience, drivers, and strategic adaptation
Dr. Le Duy Binh, Managing Director of business management consultants Economica Vietnam, said the country’s prospects in 2026 should be viewed in the context of its performance over the past five years; a period that tested its resilience but also strengthened its internal capacity. “Vietnam has gone through extremely challenging times, from the Covid-19 shock to global disruptions, yet still maintained growth of 6.5-7 per cent, with some years exceeding 8 per cent,” he noted. “This shows how much stronger the economy’s internal dynamics have become.”
With a stable macro-economic foundation and strong investor and consumer confidence, he believes Vietnam can expect higher growth in 2026, though the 10 per cent GDP target may be ambitious.
According to Dr. Binh, Vietnam’s economy will be supported by four major growth drivers next year. First, global trade recovery, bolstered by monetary easing in major economies, particularly the US. Second, public investment, with faster disbursement rates and the completion of several key infrastructure projects opening new space for growth. Third, private investment and FDI are rebounding thanks to regulatory reforms and Politburo Resolution No. 68 on the private sector. And fourth, domestic consumption continues to expand, by 9-11 per cent this year, anchored by a 100-million-strong population and rising disposable incomes, making it one of the most important growth pillars.
However, he also cautioned that the pace of growth will depend on Vietnam’s ability to manage macro-economic risks such as inflation, exchange rates, public debt, and its credit-dependent growth model; factors that require careful policy coordination between the government and businesses.
Dr. Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, believes inflation risks remain low while exchange rate volatility warrants closer attention. “Vietnam’s economy remains highly dollarized, making exchange rate movements a key determinant of monetary policy,” he said. “Though global interest rates are trending downwards, domestic rates have inched up. As long as the exchange rate remains stable, monetary policy should stay accommodative, but the extent of easing should be considered carefully.”
From an international perspective, Mr. Sacha Dray, Economist at the World Bank in Vietnam, commended Vietnam’s timely and flexible policy responses to shifting trade and tariff dynamics driven by the US. “We’ve seen a strong export rebound, up 23 per cent year-on-year, reaching $113 billion to the US; the highest level in Vietnam’s trade history,” he said.
He noted that the US’s revised tariff framework, with an average rate of 15.3 per cent on Vietnamese exports, poses challenges but still positions Vietnam favorably against China and India within regional supply chains. Meanwhile, Vietnam has yet to fully leverage the benefits of its many free trade agreements (FTAs), which could further strengthen its export base.
Rethinking capital and confidence
Despite strong fundamentals and resilient growth, Vietnam’s capital market remains curiously undervalued in the eyes of foreign investors; a paradox that experts believe reveals both short-term headwinds and long-term opportunity.
According to Dr. Tuan, one of the key questions facing the market is why foreign investors currently hold only about 14.5 per cent of Vietnamese equities - the lowest level in the region - while in many other emerging markets the figure ranges from 20 to 40 per cent. This is particularly striking given that Vietnam’s economic fundamentals and growth prospects remain stronger than many of its peers.
He pointed out that, in 2024, foreign investors net sold $1 billion worth of Vietnamese equities - a sharp reversal - followed by another $1.6 billion in net selling in just one month this year. This sell-off, he explained, was largely due to lingering concerns from 2023, when both domestic and external factors pressured investor sentiment.
Another factor influencing foreign capital flows, he continued, is the strong link between Vietnam and China. As China saw a surge in capital outflows, Vietnam experienced spillover effects. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s equity market has risen 20-30 per cent since early 2024, prompting some foreign funds to take profits and reduce exposure.
Dr. Tuan projected that 2026 could mark a “reset” phase for the market, as Vietnam’s relative returns are redefined and rebalanced against other regional markets. Its foreign exchange reserves currently stand at just under $80 billion, equivalent to three months of imports. Over the past five years, foreign investors have withdrawn nearly $12 billion from the local stock market. Without those outflows, he argued, Vietnam’s macro-economic stability and reserves would be much stronger.
Dr. Binh shares a similar view, emphasizing that public investment has historically played a vital role in boosting aggregate demand, especially after crises or economic downturns. In Vietnam’s current phase of transformation towards a new growth model, he explained, demand for infrastructure and economic expansion remains pressing, making public investment an important short-term driver.
However, he cautioned against excessive reliance on public spending. Overexpansion, he noted, could lead to a “crowding-out effect” that discourages private sector investment. In addition, increased public investment often requires higher taxes or more government borrowing, which in turn raises the financial burden on businesses and citizens.
In the longer term, he suggested, private investment should gradually take the lead, particularly in infrastructure projects where the private sector can participate through public-private partnerships (PPPs) or other collaborative models. “Public investment will remain an important driver,” Dr. Binh concluded. “But its role should evolve from leading to enabling, creating momentum for private capital to power the next phase of Vietnam’s growth.”
Turning optimism into action
As Vietnam looks ahead to 2026, economists and investors share a rare sense of confidence, which is tempered by realism, as the country prepares for a year defined by growth potential, returning capital, and renewed momentum.
Dr. Tuan projected Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026 to reach 8-10 per cent, reflecting a robust recovery and continued momentum. “If I were to sum up my view in one sentence,” he said, “it would be stay optimistic in spirit but calculated in action.”
Dr. Binh also noted that the forecast itself reflects the growing confidence of the business community, which will soon translate into concrete action - investment decisions, business expansion, and stronger consumer spending.
He added that this positive sentiment could already be seen in 2025, as both direct and portfolio investment flows are expected to return after a period of capital outflow. “While we’ve seen significant capital leaving the market recently, it also shows that investors still believe those funds will find their way back, one way or another,” he said.
Mr. Dray agreed with the overall direction, commending Vietnam’s proactive policy responses. He highlighted the importance of closely monitoring global risks such as geopolitical tensions and political instability, while emphasizing diversification, information transparency, and the continued acceleration of public investment as key safeguards for resilience.
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