In the first half of July 2026, the trade balance remained in deficit at $3.64 billion, pushing the cumulative trade deficit since begining 2026 to $20.46 billion. This indicates that merchandise trade is moving in an asynchronous manner, as rising input imports in certain sectors have not yet been converted into output growth
According to preliminary data from the Vietnam Customs, the country's total import-export turnover in the first half of July 2026 reached approximately $51.54 billion, a slight increase of 0.68% compared to the first half of June.
Cumulatively, as of the end of the reporting period, total trade turnover reached $601.51 billion, an increase of 27.77% over the same period last year.
Despite the overall growth, performance in the first half of July reflected a less positive trend for exports, which reached approximately $23.95 billion, a decrease of 1.07% compared to the previous period.
During this time, the structure of imports diverged significantly from exports, with total import turnover reaching approximately $27.59 billion, up 2.26% compared to the first half of June. This has placed short-term pressure on the trade balance, signaling that import demand remains high, particularly for groups of goods serving industrial production.
By sector, the processing and manufacturing industry continued to account for a major share of imports, though internal trends remained inconsistent. This movement contradicts the export trend within the same group, suggesting that businesses are ramping up imports of raw materials, components, and semi-finished products to maintain or expand production capacity, even as output has yet to recover correspondingly. Experts suggest this may reflect a time lag in the production chain or indicate that imported goods have not yet been converted into export products, thereby creating pressure on corporate inventory and cash flow in the short term.
Notably, imports of computers, electronic products, and components surged by 14.36%, an increase of more than $1.55 billion. This spike not only highlights high demand for inputs among electronics firms but also reflects preparation for production and export orders in the coming periods, acting as the primary factor driving up overall import turnover during this timeframe.
In the first half of July, the export turnover of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sector reached approximately $19.21 billion, down 1.64%. Meanwhile, FDI imports hit $20.97 billion, up 5.96%, accounting for an overwhelming share of total turnover. This trend reaffirms that the FDI sector remains the primary driver of production and exports while simultaneously generating massive import demand for raw materials and components.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Quynh Hoa, a representative of the Vietnam Institute of Strategy and Policy for Industry and Trade, controlling the trade deficit in this context requires a holistic set of solutions that provide a long-term foundation for sustainable growth.
She noted that there remains significant room to expand exports if Vietnam effectively capitalizes on Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) such as the CPTPP, EVFTA, and RCEP. In addition to maintaining traditional markets, businesses must proactively explore high-potential regions such as the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa.
“In a global economic context fraught with risks—from geopolitical conflicts to rising trade barriers—market diversification not only reduces dependency on major partners like the US, the EU, or China but also creates more room for export growth,” Ms. Hoa emphasized.
In tandem with export expansion, she suggested that import management must be more selective and efficient. Foreign currency reserves should be prioritized for goods serving production, such as machinery, high-tech equipment, and essential raw materials. Conversely, non-essential consumer goods, particularly luxury items or products that can be manufactured domestically, should be strictly controlled to limit a prolonged trade deficit.
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