At the Vietnam Real Estate Market Forum 2026, organized recently by the Vietnam Real Estate Association, the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS), and the Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute (VARS IRE), Mr. Nguyen Van Khoi, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, stated that the real estate market concluded 2025 with many positive results, continuing to affirm its important role and positive contribution to economic and social development.
Highest supply in the 2019-2025 period
Presenting the market report for the past year, Ms. Pham Thi Mien, Deputy Director of VARS IRE, shared that the entire market had over 128,000 new housing products offered, the highest level in the 2019-2025 period, and an 88% increase compared to 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, the market recorded over 42,000 new products launched, up 24% from the previous quarter and 48% from the same period last year. Inventory levels increased rapidly, but mainly consisted of products under development and future housing, reflecting the positive supply for the next phase.
However, the supply-demand mismatch continued. In some localities, mainly in the southern region, the supply of commercial housing at more affordable prices increased significantly, helping to improve the market balance locally. Conversely, in Hanoi, Da Nang, and the former Ho Chi Minh City, the mismatch became more pronounced as the supply of social housing, despite a strong increase, still could not keep up with the supply of commercial housing priced above VND80 million (more than $3,042)/m2.
By region, the supply structure continued to improve towards diversification. The North maintained its leading position, accounting for 48% of the total national supply. The southern region rose strongly, accounting for 37%, thanks to a series of projects being simultaneously deployed after a long period of stagnation. Meanwhile, the central region remained stable at 15%. On the business side, the supply was more competitive in the fourth quarter, but for the whole year, it was still mainly led by large investors.
Discussing liquidity, Mr. Le Dinh Chung, Vice Chairman of the VARS Real Estate Market Research and Evaluation Council, General Director of SGO Homes, stated that the average absorption rate in 2025 reached about 68% of the new supply, equivalent to nearly 88,000 successful transactions. In the first three quarters of the year, many projects, despite high prices, still recorded good absorption rates thanks to increased real demand and investment. However, in the fourth quarter, the absorption rate tended to decrease slightly as supply increased sharply and investor sentiment became more cautious in the context of rising deposit and lending interest rates.
Signs of rpice cuts emerge
Mr. Chung also noted that real demand continued to play an important role, but the main driver of the market still came from investment demand. More than 75% of transactions came from second-time home buyers or more, with about 10% being short-term financial leverage investors. Notably, the proportion of young people buying their first home is on the rise thanks to preferential policies and flexible payment methods from investors.
Along with the recovery of transactions, housing prices continued to rise and set new benchmarks in most areas. The low-rise and land plot segments recorded an increase in asking prices from 5-10%. Many investors applied methods to extend construction progress to reduce initial financial pressure for investors, while many projects allocated separate product funds, offering incentives for customers committed to early occupancy, limiting transfers to prioritize forming real resident communities. In the land plot segment, new asking prices recorded an increase of up to 20% due to prolonged supply shortages.
In the secondary market, low-rise housing prices increased by about 20% compared to the same period last year. Transactions were mainly concentrated in projects priced from VND100-200 million (more than $3,803 - 7,606)/m2, located in established urban areas with residents and synchronized infrastructure and amenities. Conversely, many villa and adjacent products, despite high price increases, had limited liquidity due to incomplete projects, inconvenient connectivity, and lagging regional infrastructure.
The condominium segment continued to be a hot spot in the market, with new asking prices in major cities simultaneously rising sharply, as new development projects all positioned products in the high-end segment or higher in the context of sharply increasing land-related costs. In Hanoi, the average new asking price for apartments reached about VND100 million/m2, up 40% from 2024. In the former Ho Chi Minh City, the new asking price averaged VND111 million/m2, up 23% from the previous year, with a series of luxury projects launched at the end of the year, affirming the market's growth signal. In Da Nang, the average new asking price for condominiums also exceeded VND83 million/m2, up 14% from 2024.
In the secondary market, in Hanoi, prices rose rapidly in a short time, with many areas recording increases from hundreds of millions to billions of VND per unit, but the upward trend tended to slow down at the end of the year, with some investors selling at a "loss" due to "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) psychology during the hot growth phase. However, the price level in the central area remained stable.
In Da Nang, prices rose sharply due to increased investment demand, especially from Hanoi investors, but liquidity also slowed down at the end of the year with price levels tending to flatten. Meanwhile, in the former Ho Chi Minh City, apartment prices continued to accelerate, focusing on areas with large infrastructure projects under construction or about to be implemented.
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