According to the Asian Development Outlook April 2026 (ADO) report, released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on April 10, ADB forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.2 per cent for 2026 and 7 per cent for 2027.
The forecast was released amid rising external risks and heightened global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's inflation is forecast to increase to 4 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.8 per cent in 2027.
Along with that, industrial sector growth is expected to moderate to 7.7 per cent in 2026. Meanwhile, the services sector is projected to expand by around 7.5 per cent this year, supported by a recovery in tourism and the continued expansion of technology-driven activities.
Agricultural growth is expected to remain stable at 3.6 per cent for 2026.
Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, noted that the Vietnamese government responded swiftly to energy supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.
“Time-bound fiscal measures, including tax relief, the use of the stabilization fund, flexible price adjustments, and stronger supply coordination, have helped contain near-term inflationary pressures and support growth,” he said.
However, downside risks remain significant. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt flows of oil, gas, and fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz, raising shipping costs and causing delays. Together with the war in Ukraine, these developments are intensifying commodity price volatility and placing further strain on global supply chains. Weaker growth in key trading partners could also narrow Vietnam’s trade surplus and weigh on growth.
According to Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, ADB Chief Economist in Vietnam, the country’s 2026 growth may face greater challenges, as it will be measured against a high base from the previous year.
Besides, the global economy is expected to become more difficult and may slow down, thereby reducing demand for Vietnam’s exports as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.
Therefore, in the period ahead, Mr. Hung noted that advancing institutional reforms, including the ongoing administrative restructuring, along with improvements in public investment and the legal framework, could boost medium-term growth by enhancing public sector efficiency, attracting more private investment, and strengthening the resilience of the Vietnamese economy.
Moreover, ADB experts also suggested that strengthening Vietnam’s corporate bond market will be essential to mobilize long-term financing beyond bank credit and support sustained investment. Enhancing transparency, ensuring consistent regulations, and broadening market participation will be key to improving investor confidence and market efficiency.
If implemented effectively, ongoing reforms in this area could position the corporate bond market as a stable source of long-term finance for sustainable and inclusive growth, according to the experts.
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